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Türkiye Süper Lig Takımlarının Ev Sahibi Avantajı ve Deplasman Dezavantajının İstatistiksel Modellenmesi

Year 2023, Volume: 28 Issue: 3, 206 - 214, 31.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.53434/gbesbd.1272670

Abstract

Tüm spor dalları için ev sahibi olmanın (HA) veya deplasmanda (AD) olmanın sonucu etkileyen en önemli faktörlerden olduğu bir gerçektir. HA ile ilgili birçok çalışma olmasına rağmen, bu çalışmaların birçoğu ligler özelinde yapılmış olup, takım seviyesinde HA inceleyen çalışma sayısı oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu çalışmada, Poisson regresyon kullanılarak Türkiye Süper Ligi’nde 2000/2001 ile 2021/2022 sezonları arasında en az 3 sezon yer alan takımların evlerinde ve deplasmanda oynadıkları maçlarda attıkları ve yedikleri gol sayıları üzerinden, takım özelinde HA ve AD değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, analize dahil edilen 34 takımın 32 tanesinin istatistiksel olarak %56.2 ile %81.8 arasında değişen ev sahibi avantajına sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. AD açısından değerlendirildiğinde ise, AD değerlerinin %46.7 ile %65.4 arasında değişmekte olduğu ve sadece 9 takımın deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışma sonuçları ligde sıralamayı belirleyen esas faktörün takımların deplasman dezavantajı performansı olduğunu göstermiştir. Takımların farklı HA ve AD değerlerine sahip olmasının sebebi olarak seyirci avantajı, içeride ve dışarıda uygulanan farklı oyun taktikleri gibi faktörler gösterilebilir.

References

  • 1. Arı, E., & Apaydın, N. (2021). Covid-19 Salgın Sürecinde (2020-2021 Sezonu) Türkiye profesyonel futbol liglerinde ev sahibi olma avantajının incelenmesi [The Examination of home advantage in Turkey Professional Football Leagues in Covid-19 pandemy period (2020-2021 Season)]. Spor Eğitim Dergisi, 5(3), 79-86.
  • 2. Carlos H. A., & Volossovitch A. (2017). Home advantage in Portuguese football: effects of level of competition and mid-term trends. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 17(3), 244-255. DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2017.1331574.
  • 3. Carron, A. V., Loughhead, T. M., & Bray, S. R. (2005). The home advantage in sport competitions: Courneya and Carron’s (1992) conceptual framework a decade later. Journal of Sports Sciences, 23, 395–407.
  • 4. Clarke, S. R., & Norman J. M. (1995). Home ground advantage of individual clubs in English soccer. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. The Statistician, 44, 509–521.
  • 5. Courneya, K. S., & Carron, A. V. (1992). The home advantage in sport competitions: A literatüre review. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 14, 28–39.
  • 6. Demirgil, H. (2022). TFF Süperlig’de Pazartesi ve derbi maçlarının ev sahibi takım avantajına etkileri [The Effects of Monday and derby matches on the home team advantage in TFF Super League]. Gazi Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 27(3), 247-264. DOI: 10.53434/gbesbd.1095391
  • 7. Goumas, C. (2014a). Home advantage in Australian soccer. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 17, 119-123.
  • 8. Goumas, C. (2014b). Home advantage and referee bias in European football. European Journal of Sport Science; 14, 243–249.
  • 9. Goumas, C. (2013). Modelling home advantage in sport: a new approach. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 13, 428–39.
  • 10. Goumas, C. (2017). Modelling home advantage for individual teams in UEFA Champions League football. Journal of Sport and Health Science, 6, 321–326.
  • 11. Göral, K. (2015). Türkiye futbol süper liginde ev sahibi olma avantajı [Home Ground Advantages of Turkey Spor Toto Super League Clubs]. Uluslararası Hakemli Akademik Spor Sağlık ve Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi, 5, 72-82.
  • 12. Günay, M., Yüce, A., & Ocak, Y. (2017). Futbol-futsal antrenmanının bilimsel temelleri [Football-Scientific Basics of Futsal Training]. Ankara: Batman Belediyespor Kültür Eğitim ve Spor Yayınları.
  • 13. Gürkan O., Göral K., & Saygın Ö. (2017) Profesyonel futbolda ev sahibi olma avantajı: Türkiye 1. Liginin analizi, Journal of Human Sciences, 14(4), 3292-3299.
  • 14. Gürkan, O. (2018). İç saha ve deplasmanda oynanan müsabakaların bazı performans parametreleri açısından karşılaştırılması: Türkiye Futbol Süper Ligi örneği [The Comparisons of home and away competitions in terms of some performance parameters: the case of Turkey Football Super League]. The Journal of Academic Social Science, 6(76), 442-448. http://dx.doi.org/10.16992/ASOS.13931
  • 15. Işıkdemir, E. (2020). Is it the advantage to be the host in competitions played in soccer according to the score and elimination procedure. Spormetre The Journal of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, 18(2), 157-165.
  • 16. İnan, T. (2018). Analyzing the home-field advantage in major european football leagues. International Journal of Environmetal & Science Education, 13(2), 113-124.
  • 17. Karlis, D., & Ntzoufras I. (2003). Analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models. The Statistician, 52, 381–93.
  • 18. Krumer, A., Shapir, O., & Zou, Y. (2022). The size of the crowd and home advantage in football: evidence from Chinese Super League (October 1, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4275445 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4275445
  • 19. Leite, W. S. S. (2017). Home advantage: comparison between the major European football leagues. Athens Journal of Sports, 4(1), 65-74.
  • 20. Liu, T., Alcaraz, A. G., Zhang L., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Exploring home advantage and quality of opposition interactions in the Chinese Football Super League. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(3), 289-301. DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2019.1600907
  • 21. Marek, P., & Vávra, F. (2017, June). Home team advantage in English premier league. Paper presented at Mathsport International 2017 Conference Proceedings/ Padua, Italy.
  • 22. Müniroğlu, S., & Deliceoğlu, G. (2008). Futbolda müsabaka analizi ve gözlem teknikleri [Competition Analysis and Observation Techniques in Football] (1. Baskı.) Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Basımevi.
  • 23. Öndes, H. (2019). Türkiye Spor Toto Süper Ligi kulüplerinin ev sahibi olma avantajı. Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 30(2), 74-84. DOI: 10.17644/sbd.386809
  • 24. Pollard, R. (1986). Home advantage in soccer: A retrospective analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 4, 237–248.
  • 25. Pollard, R. (2008). Home advantage in football: A current review of an unsolved puzzle. The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 1, 12–14.
  • 26. Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. A. (2009). Home advantage in football in South-West Europe: Long-term trends, regional variation, and team differences. European Journal of Sport Science, 9(6), 341-352, DOI: 10.1080/17461390903009133.
  • 27. Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. Á. (2014). Components of home advantage in 157 national soccer leagues worldwide. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 12, 218–233.
  • 28. Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. Á. (2015). Validity of the established method of quantifying home advantage in soccer. Journal of Human Kinetics, 45(1), 7–8.
  • 29. Pollard, R., Silva, C. D., & Medeiros, N. C. (2008). Home advantage in football in Brazil: Differences between teams and the effects of distance traveled. Revista Brasileira De Futebol (The Brazilian Journal of Soccer Science), 1(1), 3–10.
  • 30. Ponzo, M., & Scoppa, V. (2018). Does the home advantage depend on crowd support? Evidence from same-stadium derbies. Journal of Sports Economics, 19(4), 562-582. DOI:10.1177/1527002516665794
  • 31. Ramchandani, G., Millar, R., & Wilson, D. (2021). The relationship between team ability and home advantage in the English football league system. German Journal of Exercise and Sport Research, 51, 354–361. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12662-021-00721-x
  • 32. Rooney L., & Kennedy R. (2018). Home advantage in Gaelic football: the effect of divisional status, season and team ability. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(6), 917-925, DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2018.1528523.
  • 33. Sampedro, J., & Prieto, J. (2012). El efecto de marcar primero y la ventaja de jugar en casa en la liga de fútbol y en la liga de fútbol sala de España (The effect of scoring first and the advantage of playing at home in the football league and the Spanish football league). Revista de Psicología del Deporte, 21(2), 301-308.
  • 34. Seçkin, A. (2006, June). Home advantage in association football: Evidence from Turkish Super League. Paper presented at ECOMOD Conference. Hong Kong, China.
  • 35. Subak, E., & Kaya, K. (2021). Home advantage and audience effect analysis of Turkish Super League in Covid-19 Season. Research & Investigations in Sports Medicine, 7(5), RISM.000674. 2021. DOI: 10.31031/RISM.2021.07.000674.
  • 36. Talab, R. H., & Mehrsafar, A. H. (2016). An analysis of home advantage in Iranian football super league. International Journal of Sport Exercise and Training Sciences – IJSETS, 2(4), 137-144. DOI: 10.18826/useeabd.279752.
  • 37. Tütüncü, O., & Yolgörmez, A. C. (2021). Futbolda ev avantajı mı, deplasman dezavantajı mı? COVID-19 pandemi süreci örneği [Home Advantage or Away Disadvantage in Football? COVID-19 Pandemic Process Example]. Gazi Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 26(1), 137-149.
  • 38. Werlayne, S. S. L. (2017). Home advantage: Comparison between the major European football leagues. Athens Journal of Sports, 4(1), 65-74.
  • 39. White, H. (1982). Maximum likelihood estimation of misspecified models. Econometrica, 50, 1-25.

Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams

Year 2023, Volume: 28 Issue: 3, 206 - 214, 31.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.53434/gbesbd.1272670

Abstract

It is a fact that for all sports branches, being home or away is one of the most critical factors influencing the outcome of the game. Although there are many studies on Home Advantage (HA), most of these studies have been made specifically for leagues as a whole, and the number of studies examining HA at the team level is quite limited. In this study, the HA and away disadvantage (AD) values were calculated, using Poisson regression, for each team played at least 3 seasons in the Turkish Super League between 2000/2001 and 2021/2022 seasons, based on the goals they scored and conceded in their home and away matches. According to the results of the study, 32 of the 34 teams included in the analysis were found to have a home advantage that statistically varied between 56.2% and 81.8%. Evaluations using AD determined that AD values ranged between 46.7% and 65.4% and only 9 teams did not have an away disadvantage in the league. However, the results of the study indicated that the main factor determining the ranking in the league is the away disadvantage of the teams. The reason why the teams have different HA and AD values can be shown as the effect of the spectators, and different game tactics applied in home and away matches.

References

  • 1. Arı, E., & Apaydın, N. (2021). Covid-19 Salgın Sürecinde (2020-2021 Sezonu) Türkiye profesyonel futbol liglerinde ev sahibi olma avantajının incelenmesi [The Examination of home advantage in Turkey Professional Football Leagues in Covid-19 pandemy period (2020-2021 Season)]. Spor Eğitim Dergisi, 5(3), 79-86.
  • 2. Carlos H. A., & Volossovitch A. (2017). Home advantage in Portuguese football: effects of level of competition and mid-term trends. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 17(3), 244-255. DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2017.1331574.
  • 3. Carron, A. V., Loughhead, T. M., & Bray, S. R. (2005). The home advantage in sport competitions: Courneya and Carron’s (1992) conceptual framework a decade later. Journal of Sports Sciences, 23, 395–407.
  • 4. Clarke, S. R., & Norman J. M. (1995). Home ground advantage of individual clubs in English soccer. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. The Statistician, 44, 509–521.
  • 5. Courneya, K. S., & Carron, A. V. (1992). The home advantage in sport competitions: A literatüre review. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 14, 28–39.
  • 6. Demirgil, H. (2022). TFF Süperlig’de Pazartesi ve derbi maçlarının ev sahibi takım avantajına etkileri [The Effects of Monday and derby matches on the home team advantage in TFF Super League]. Gazi Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 27(3), 247-264. DOI: 10.53434/gbesbd.1095391
  • 7. Goumas, C. (2014a). Home advantage in Australian soccer. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 17, 119-123.
  • 8. Goumas, C. (2014b). Home advantage and referee bias in European football. European Journal of Sport Science; 14, 243–249.
  • 9. Goumas, C. (2013). Modelling home advantage in sport: a new approach. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 13, 428–39.
  • 10. Goumas, C. (2017). Modelling home advantage for individual teams in UEFA Champions League football. Journal of Sport and Health Science, 6, 321–326.
  • 11. Göral, K. (2015). Türkiye futbol süper liginde ev sahibi olma avantajı [Home Ground Advantages of Turkey Spor Toto Super League Clubs]. Uluslararası Hakemli Akademik Spor Sağlık ve Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi, 5, 72-82.
  • 12. Günay, M., Yüce, A., & Ocak, Y. (2017). Futbol-futsal antrenmanının bilimsel temelleri [Football-Scientific Basics of Futsal Training]. Ankara: Batman Belediyespor Kültür Eğitim ve Spor Yayınları.
  • 13. Gürkan O., Göral K., & Saygın Ö. (2017) Profesyonel futbolda ev sahibi olma avantajı: Türkiye 1. Liginin analizi, Journal of Human Sciences, 14(4), 3292-3299.
  • 14. Gürkan, O. (2018). İç saha ve deplasmanda oynanan müsabakaların bazı performans parametreleri açısından karşılaştırılması: Türkiye Futbol Süper Ligi örneği [The Comparisons of home and away competitions in terms of some performance parameters: the case of Turkey Football Super League]. The Journal of Academic Social Science, 6(76), 442-448. http://dx.doi.org/10.16992/ASOS.13931
  • 15. Işıkdemir, E. (2020). Is it the advantage to be the host in competitions played in soccer according to the score and elimination procedure. Spormetre The Journal of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, 18(2), 157-165.
  • 16. İnan, T. (2018). Analyzing the home-field advantage in major european football leagues. International Journal of Environmetal & Science Education, 13(2), 113-124.
  • 17. Karlis, D., & Ntzoufras I. (2003). Analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models. The Statistician, 52, 381–93.
  • 18. Krumer, A., Shapir, O., & Zou, Y. (2022). The size of the crowd and home advantage in football: evidence from Chinese Super League (October 1, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4275445 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4275445
  • 19. Leite, W. S. S. (2017). Home advantage: comparison between the major European football leagues. Athens Journal of Sports, 4(1), 65-74.
  • 20. Liu, T., Alcaraz, A. G., Zhang L., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Exploring home advantage and quality of opposition interactions in the Chinese Football Super League. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 19(3), 289-301. DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2019.1600907
  • 21. Marek, P., & Vávra, F. (2017, June). Home team advantage in English premier league. Paper presented at Mathsport International 2017 Conference Proceedings/ Padua, Italy.
  • 22. Müniroğlu, S., & Deliceoğlu, G. (2008). Futbolda müsabaka analizi ve gözlem teknikleri [Competition Analysis and Observation Techniques in Football] (1. Baskı.) Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Basımevi.
  • 23. Öndes, H. (2019). Türkiye Spor Toto Süper Ligi kulüplerinin ev sahibi olma avantajı. Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 30(2), 74-84. DOI: 10.17644/sbd.386809
  • 24. Pollard, R. (1986). Home advantage in soccer: A retrospective analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 4, 237–248.
  • 25. Pollard, R. (2008). Home advantage in football: A current review of an unsolved puzzle. The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 1, 12–14.
  • 26. Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. A. (2009). Home advantage in football in South-West Europe: Long-term trends, regional variation, and team differences. European Journal of Sport Science, 9(6), 341-352, DOI: 10.1080/17461390903009133.
  • 27. Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. Á. (2014). Components of home advantage in 157 national soccer leagues worldwide. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 12, 218–233.
  • 28. Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. Á. (2015). Validity of the established method of quantifying home advantage in soccer. Journal of Human Kinetics, 45(1), 7–8.
  • 29. Pollard, R., Silva, C. D., & Medeiros, N. C. (2008). Home advantage in football in Brazil: Differences between teams and the effects of distance traveled. Revista Brasileira De Futebol (The Brazilian Journal of Soccer Science), 1(1), 3–10.
  • 30. Ponzo, M., & Scoppa, V. (2018). Does the home advantage depend on crowd support? Evidence from same-stadium derbies. Journal of Sports Economics, 19(4), 562-582. DOI:10.1177/1527002516665794
  • 31. Ramchandani, G., Millar, R., & Wilson, D. (2021). The relationship between team ability and home advantage in the English football league system. German Journal of Exercise and Sport Research, 51, 354–361. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12662-021-00721-x
  • 32. Rooney L., & Kennedy R. (2018). Home advantage in Gaelic football: the effect of divisional status, season and team ability. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(6), 917-925, DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2018.1528523.
  • 33. Sampedro, J., & Prieto, J. (2012). El efecto de marcar primero y la ventaja de jugar en casa en la liga de fútbol y en la liga de fútbol sala de España (The effect of scoring first and the advantage of playing at home in the football league and the Spanish football league). Revista de Psicología del Deporte, 21(2), 301-308.
  • 34. Seçkin, A. (2006, June). Home advantage in association football: Evidence from Turkish Super League. Paper presented at ECOMOD Conference. Hong Kong, China.
  • 35. Subak, E., & Kaya, K. (2021). Home advantage and audience effect analysis of Turkish Super League in Covid-19 Season. Research & Investigations in Sports Medicine, 7(5), RISM.000674. 2021. DOI: 10.31031/RISM.2021.07.000674.
  • 36. Talab, R. H., & Mehrsafar, A. H. (2016). An analysis of home advantage in Iranian football super league. International Journal of Sport Exercise and Training Sciences – IJSETS, 2(4), 137-144. DOI: 10.18826/useeabd.279752.
  • 37. Tütüncü, O., & Yolgörmez, A. C. (2021). Futbolda ev avantajı mı, deplasman dezavantajı mı? COVID-19 pandemi süreci örneği [Home Advantage or Away Disadvantage in Football? COVID-19 Pandemic Process Example]. Gazi Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 26(1), 137-149.
  • 38. Werlayne, S. S. L. (2017). Home advantage: Comparison between the major European football leagues. Athens Journal of Sports, 4(1), 65-74.
  • 39. White, H. (1982). Maximum likelihood estimation of misspecified models. Econometrica, 50, 1-25.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Sports Science and Exercise (Other)
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Umit Kuvvetli 0000-0002-9567-3675

Özgül Vupa Çilengiroğlu 0000-0003-0181-8376

Publication Date July 31, 2023
Submission Date March 30, 2023
Acceptance Date July 20, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 28 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Kuvvetli, U., & Vupa Çilengiroğlu, Ö. (2023). Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams. Gazi Beden Eğitimi Ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(3), 206-214. https://doi.org/10.53434/gbesbd.1272670

Gazi Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi yılda dört kez yayımlanan bilimsel ve hakemli bir dergidir.


Gazi Journal of Physical Education and Sports Sciences is a scientific and peer-reviewed journal published quarterly.