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Trend Analysis of Monthly Average Flows of Kizilirmak Basin

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 3, 454 - 459, 30.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.595095

Abstract

The impact of climate change on
meteorological data and water resources is one of the subjects of interest in
both hydrology and meteorology.
The change in
meteorological occurrences due to the atmospheric circulation of climate is an
important factor in the design of water structures and water management issues.
In this study, trend analysis was performed by using monthly average
current values taken from three different current observation stations in Kizilirmak
basin and the presence of meaningful trend was investigated.
Mann Kendall (MK) and Modified Mann Kendall (Hamed) and Spearman's Rho
(SRHO) methods are the non-parametric methods used in trend analysis of basin
flows.
The linear regression method, which is a parametric
method, is also included in the study of trend.
Pettit method was used
to determine the beginning of the trend.
The mean monthly flow
data between the years of 1970 and 2010 were taken from 15-03, 15-68 and 15-208
stations analyzed and as a result an increasing trend in 15-68 stations and a
decreasing trend was determined in 15-208 and 15-03 stations.
According to the Pettit test, the beginning of the increase trend in flow
at station 15-68 is September 1986. And the beginning of the decrease in the
15-208 station was in April 1989 and the beginning of the decrease in the 15-03
stations took place in 1999-September.

References

  • Beyazit,M. (1996). Probability Methods In Civil Engineering, İTU, Faculty Of Construction
  • Beyazit, M., Cıgızoglu, K., Onoz, B., (2002). Trend Analysis in Turkey's River , Turkey Engineering News, Issue: 420-421, 4-5-6.
  • Ceribasi,G.,Dogan E.,(2015). Evaluation of Streamflow of West and East Black Sea and Sakarya Basin by Using Trend Analysis Method, SDU International Technologic Science Vol. 7, No 2, October 2015, pp.1-12.
  • Gumus, V. and Yenigun, K., (2006). Evaluation of Lower Firat Basin Streamflow by Trend Analysis, 7th International Advances in Civil Engineering Conference, Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Kendall,M. G.(1975). Rank Correlation Methods,Charles Giffin,London.
  • Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., Morán-Tejeda, E. , Zabalza, J., (2012). Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945–2000), Journal of Hydrology, 414–415 (2012).
  • Ozel, N., Kalayci, S., Sevimli, M.F., Buyukyildiz, M.,(2004). Trend Analysis of Monthly Streamflow Data by Using Nonparametric Methods in Sakarya River Basin, Journal of Faculty .Eng. Arch. Selcuk Univ., v.19, n.2, 2004.
  • Tekkanat, I.S., Saris, F.,(2015). Observed long‐term trends in river flows of Porsuk Creek Basin, Turkish Geographical Review, Issue 64: 69‐83, Istanbul.
  • Yildirim, A.,(2015). Trend Analysis Methods : Middle Firat Region Application, Master Thesis, Energy Institute, , Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Yenigun, K., Gumus, V., and Bulut ,H.(2008). Trends in streamflow of Euphrates Basin,Turkey.P I Civil Eng-Wat M,161 (4),189-198.

Kızılırmak Havzası Ortalama Akımlarının Trend Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 3, 454 - 459, 30.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.595095

Abstract

İklim
değişikliğinin meteorolojik verilere ve su kaynaklarına etkisi son yıllarda hem
hidroloji hem de meteoroloji alanında ilgi çeken konulardan birisidir. İklimin
atmosferik sirkülasyona etkisiyle meteorolojik oluşumlarda meydana gelen
değişim su yapılarının tasarımı ve su yönetimi konuları üzerinde önemli bir
etkendir. Yapılan çalışmada Kızılırmak havzasında bulunan üç farklı akım gözlem
istasyonundan alınan aylık ortalama akım değerleri kullanılarak trend analizi
yapılmış, anlamlı trend varlığı araştırılmıştır. Havza akımlarının trend
analizinde kullanılan Mann Kendall (MK) ve Modifiye Mann Kendall (Hamed),
Spearman’nın Rho(SR) yöntemleri parametrik olmayan yöntemlerdir. Parametrik bir
yöntem olan Lineer regresyon yöntemi de trend araştırılmasına dahil edilmiştir.
Trendin başlangıcını belirlemek amacıyla da Pettit yöntemi kullanılmıştır.
Çalışmada DSİ’ye ait 15-208, 15-68 ve EİE ‘ye ait 15-03 istasyonlarından
alınan, 1970-2010 yılları arasındaki ortalama akım değerleri kullanılmış ve
sonuçta 15-68 nolu istasyonda artan yönde trend gözlenirken,15-208 ve 15-03
nolu istasyonlarda azalan yönde bir trend varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Pettit
testine göre 15-68 nolu istasyonda akımlardaki artışın başlangıcı 1986- Eylül
ayı,15-208 nolu istasyonda azalmanın başlangıcı 1989 Nisan ayı ve 15-03 nolu
istasyonda yine azalmanın başlangıcı 1999-Eylül aylarında gerçekleşmiştir.

References

  • Beyazit,M. (1996). Probability Methods In Civil Engineering, İTU, Faculty Of Construction
  • Beyazit, M., Cıgızoglu, K., Onoz, B., (2002). Trend Analysis in Turkey's River , Turkey Engineering News, Issue: 420-421, 4-5-6.
  • Ceribasi,G.,Dogan E.,(2015). Evaluation of Streamflow of West and East Black Sea and Sakarya Basin by Using Trend Analysis Method, SDU International Technologic Science Vol. 7, No 2, October 2015, pp.1-12.
  • Gumus, V. and Yenigun, K., (2006). Evaluation of Lower Firat Basin Streamflow by Trend Analysis, 7th International Advances in Civil Engineering Conference, Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Kendall,M. G.(1975). Rank Correlation Methods,Charles Giffin,London.
  • Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., Morán-Tejeda, E. , Zabalza, J., (2012). Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945–2000), Journal of Hydrology, 414–415 (2012).
  • Ozel, N., Kalayci, S., Sevimli, M.F., Buyukyildiz, M.,(2004). Trend Analysis of Monthly Streamflow Data by Using Nonparametric Methods in Sakarya River Basin, Journal of Faculty .Eng. Arch. Selcuk Univ., v.19, n.2, 2004.
  • Tekkanat, I.S., Saris, F.,(2015). Observed long‐term trends in river flows of Porsuk Creek Basin, Turkish Geographical Review, Issue 64: 69‐83, Istanbul.
  • Yildirim, A.,(2015). Trend Analysis Methods : Middle Firat Region Application, Master Thesis, Energy Institute, , Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Yenigun, K., Gumus, V., and Bulut ,H.(2008). Trends in streamflow of Euphrates Basin,Turkey.P I Civil Eng-Wat M,161 (4),189-198.
There are 10 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Necmiye Minarecioğlu 0000-0003-0358-5780

Hatice Çıtakoğlu 0000-0001-7319-6006

Publication Date December 30, 2019
Submission Date July 22, 2019
Acceptance Date November 14, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 4 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Minarecioğlu, N., & Çıtakoğlu, H. (2019). Trend Analysis of Monthly Average Flows of Kizilirmak Basin. Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences, 4(3), 454-459. https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.595095


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