Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

TARIM ÜRÜNLERİ FİYATLARI, HAM PETROL FİYATI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 19 Sayı: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı, 515 - 526, 31.07.2020

Öz

Modern toplumların temel yapı taşı olan beşeri sermaye için, eğitim ve yeteneklerinin geliştirilmesinin yanı sıra yeterli ve sağlıklı gıdayla beslenmeye de ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Bu noktada ülkelerin ekonomik kalkınmalarının anahtarı olan unsurlardan biri gıda ve tarımdır. Bir ülkedeki tarım faaliyetleri aracılığıyla ülke halkına gıda temini ve endüstri için gerekli hammadde üretimi sağlanmaktadır. Bu nedenle, tarım ürünleri fiyatları ekonomiler için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Tarım ürünleri fiyatlarını etkileyen arz ve talep unsurlarının yanında, çeşitli makroekonomik unsurlar da bulunmaktadır. Bu unsurlar arasında özellikle döviz kurları ve petrol fiyatları ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de Ocak 2010 ve Aralık 2019 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak petrol fiyatı ve döviz kurlarının tarım ürünleri fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, döviz kuru değişkenin tarım ürünleri fiyatlarını pozitif etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Abbott, P. C., Hurt, C., & Tyner, W. E. (2008). What's Driving Food Prices? (No. 741-2016-51224), doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.37951
  • Abdlaziz, R. A., Rahim, K. A., & Adamu, P. (2016). Oil and Food Prices Co-integration Nexus for Indonesia: A Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82-87.
  • Alghalith, M. (2010). The İnteraction between Food Prices and Oil Prices. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1520-1522.
  • Baffes, J. (2007). Oil Spills on Other Commodities. Resources Policy, 32(3), 126-134.
  • Bouznit, M. & Pablo-Romero P. (2016). CO2 Emission and Economic Growth in Algeria. Energy Policy 96, 93-104.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Esmaeili, A., & Shokoohi, Z. (2011). Assessing the Effect of Oil Price on World Food Prices: Application of Principal Component Analysis. Energy Policy, 39(2), 1022-1025.
  • Eştürk, Ö. & Albayrak, N. (2018). Tarım Ürünleri-Gıda Fiyat Artışları ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 18. EYİ Özel Sayısı, 147-158.
  • Gilbert, C. L. (2010). How to Understand High Food Prices. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(2), 398-425.
  • Gohin, A. & Chantret, F. (2010). The Long-Run Impact of Energy Prices on World Agricultural Markets: The Role of Macro-Economic Linkages. Energy Policy, 38, 333-339.
  • Gregory, A. W. & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Hameed, A. A. A. & Arshad, F. M. (2009). The Impact of Petroleum Prices on Vegetable Oils Prices: Evidence From Cointegration Tests. Oil Palm Industry Economic Journal, 9(2), 31-40.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton. Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1551-1580.
  • Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and Food Prices in Malaysia: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(2), 1-14.
  • Karadaş, H. & Salihoğlu, E. (2020). Seçili Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16, 63-80.
  • Kiatmanaroch, T. & Sriboonchitta, S. (2014). Dependence Structure between Crude Oil, Soybeans, and Palm Oil in ASEAN Region: Energy and Food Security Context. Modeling Dependence in Econometrics, 329-341.
  • Kwon, D. H. & Koo, W. W. (2009). Price Transmission Channels of Energy and Exchange on Food Sector: A Disaggregated Approach based on Stage of Process. Agricultural & Applied Economics Association 2009 AAEA & ACCI Joint Annual Meeting, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 26-28, 2009.
  • Nazlioglu, S. & Soydas, U. (2011). World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market. Energy Economics, 33, 488-496.
  • Nazlioglu, S. & Soydas, U. (2012). Oil Price, Agricultural Commodity Prices, and the Dollar: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Energy Economics, 34, 1098-1104.
  • Zivot, E. & Andrews D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-price Shock, and the Unit-root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20:1, 25-44.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT PRICES, CRUDE OIL PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 19 Sayı: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı, 515 - 526, 31.07.2020

Öz

Human capital, which is the basic building block of modern societies, needs to be fed with sufficient and healthy food as well as improving education and skills. At this point, one of the keys to the economic development of countries is food and agriculture. With the agricultural activities in a country, food supply for the people and the necessary raw materials for industry are provided. Therefore, prices of agricultural products are of great importance for economies. In addition to the supply and demand affecting the prices of agricultural products, there are also various macroeconomic factors. Among these macroeconomic factors, especially oil prices and exchange rates are significant. In this study, the impact of exchange rates and oil prices on agricultural product prices was investigated with Gregory-Hansen cointegration test by using data of Turkey belong to the January 2010- December 2019 period. The findings show that the exchange rates affect the agricultural product prices positively.

Kaynakça

  • Abbott, P. C., Hurt, C., & Tyner, W. E. (2008). What's Driving Food Prices? (No. 741-2016-51224), doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.37951
  • Abdlaziz, R. A., Rahim, K. A., & Adamu, P. (2016). Oil and Food Prices Co-integration Nexus for Indonesia: A Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82-87.
  • Alghalith, M. (2010). The İnteraction between Food Prices and Oil Prices. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1520-1522.
  • Baffes, J. (2007). Oil Spills on Other Commodities. Resources Policy, 32(3), 126-134.
  • Bouznit, M. & Pablo-Romero P. (2016). CO2 Emission and Economic Growth in Algeria. Energy Policy 96, 93-104.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Esmaeili, A., & Shokoohi, Z. (2011). Assessing the Effect of Oil Price on World Food Prices: Application of Principal Component Analysis. Energy Policy, 39(2), 1022-1025.
  • Eştürk, Ö. & Albayrak, N. (2018). Tarım Ürünleri-Gıda Fiyat Artışları ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 18. EYİ Özel Sayısı, 147-158.
  • Gilbert, C. L. (2010). How to Understand High Food Prices. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(2), 398-425.
  • Gohin, A. & Chantret, F. (2010). The Long-Run Impact of Energy Prices on World Agricultural Markets: The Role of Macro-Economic Linkages. Energy Policy, 38, 333-339.
  • Gregory, A. W. & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Hameed, A. A. A. & Arshad, F. M. (2009). The Impact of Petroleum Prices on Vegetable Oils Prices: Evidence From Cointegration Tests. Oil Palm Industry Economic Journal, 9(2), 31-40.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton. Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1551-1580.
  • Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and Food Prices in Malaysia: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(2), 1-14.
  • Karadaş, H. & Salihoğlu, E. (2020). Seçili Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16, 63-80.
  • Kiatmanaroch, T. & Sriboonchitta, S. (2014). Dependence Structure between Crude Oil, Soybeans, and Palm Oil in ASEAN Region: Energy and Food Security Context. Modeling Dependence in Econometrics, 329-341.
  • Kwon, D. H. & Koo, W. W. (2009). Price Transmission Channels of Energy and Exchange on Food Sector: A Disaggregated Approach based on Stage of Process. Agricultural & Applied Economics Association 2009 AAEA & ACCI Joint Annual Meeting, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 26-28, 2009.
  • Nazlioglu, S. & Soydas, U. (2011). World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market. Energy Economics, 33, 488-496.
  • Nazlioglu, S. & Soydas, U. (2012). Oil Price, Agricultural Commodity Prices, and the Dollar: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Energy Economics, 34, 1098-1104.
  • Zivot, E. & Andrews D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-price Shock, and the Unit-root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20:1, 25-44.
Toplam 20 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Haci Ahmet Karadaş 0000-0002-3088-1107

Şerife Merve Koşaroğlu 0000-0002-2563-5753

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 13 Temmuz 2020
Kabul Tarihi 6 Ağustos 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 19 Sayı: Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek) - Prof. Dr. Sabri ORMAN Özel Sayısı

Kaynak Göster

APA Karadaş, H. A., & Koşaroğlu, Ş. M. (2020). TARIM ÜRÜNLERİ FİYATLARI, HAM PETROL FİYATI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(Temmuz 2020(Özel Ek), 515-526.