Araştırma Makalesi
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Determinants of Air Cargo Demand in The European Region

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 118 - 125, 24.07.2022

Serdar Alnıpak Süleyman Kale

https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1053662

Öz

Air cargo demand estimation is crucial for every part of the air industry for determining policies, making decisions on investments, pricing, marketing, etc. This study analyses factors affecting the air cargo demand of the European Region (23 countries) where no studies were found by making use of the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM). The effects of Total Airport Investments, Consumer Price Index, GDP Per Capita, Population, Foreign Trade Volume, Industrial Production Index, and Exchange Rate on Air Cargo Demand were examined with the data set covering the years between 2009 and 2018. The findings indicated that previous air cargo demand has explanatory power on current demand, and there was an inverse relationship between the change in the consumer price index and the amount of cargo. In addition, the panel regression estimator indicates a positive relationship between Foreign Trade and Industrial Production Index. The results show that price stability is of great importance not only from a macroeconomic perspective but micro economically also.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Aviation Aviation management Air cargo demand estimation Dynamic panel data analysis Logistics management

Kaynakça

  • Alıcı, A., & Akar, A. S. (2020). Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Cargo Demand: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 20(48), 11-23.
  • Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric analysis of panel data (6th Ed.). Springer.
  • Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
  • Boeing. (2021). World Air Cargo Forecast 2020–2039. https://www.utikad.org.tr/images/BilgiBankasi/worldaircargoforecast20202039-1988.pdf
  • Brooks, C. (2004). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (4th Ed). Cambridge University Press, UK.
  • Chen, S.-C., Kuo, S.-Y., Chang, K.-W., & Wang, Y.-T. (2012). Improving the forecasting accuracy of air passenger and air cargo demand: the application of back-propagation neural networks. Transportation Planning and Technology, 35(3), 373-392.
  • Chi, J., & Baek, J. (2012). Price and income elasticities of demand for air transportation: Empirical evidence from US airfreight industry. Journal of Air Transport Management, 20, 18-19.
  • EUROSTAT. (2020). Eurostat Data Browser. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tin00151/default/table?lang=en
  • Hakim, M. M., & Merkert, R. (2016). The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia. Journal of Transport Geography, 56, 120-127.
  • Hsu, C.-I., Li, H.-C., Liao, P., & Hansen, M. M. (2009). Responses of air cargo carriers to industrial changes. Journal of Air Transport Management, 15(6), 330-336.
  • Hwang, C.-C., & Shiao, G.-C. (2011). Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. Journal of Transport Geography, 19(4), 738-744.
  • IATA. (2020). Air Cargo Market Analysis. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis-july-2020/
  • IATA. (2021). Air Cargo Market Analysis https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis---january-2021/
  • Kiracı, K., & Battal, Ü. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of air transportation: A VAR analysis on Turkey. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 17(4), 1536-1557.
  • Kiracı, K., & Akan, E. (2020). Empirical analysis of the relationship between trade wars and sea-air transportation. Economics and Business Review, 6(3), 23-44.
  • KPMG. (2021). The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2021: Route to Recovery. https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/ie/pdf/2021/01/ie-aviation-industry-leaders-report-route-to-recovery.pdf
  • Kupfer, F., Meersman, H., Onghena, E., & Van de Voorde, E. (2017). The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo. Journal of Air Transport Management, 61, 6-14.
  • Li, H., Bai, J., Cui, X., Li, Y., & Sun, S. (2020). A new secondary decomposition-ensemble approach with cuckoo search optimization for air cargo forecasting. Applied Soft Computing, 90, 106161.
  • Lo, W. W. L., Wan, Y., & Zhang, A. (2015). Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 78, 309-324.
  • Magaña, U., Mansouri, S. A., & Spiegler, V. L. M. (2017). Improving demand forecasting in the air cargo handling industry: a case study. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 20(4), 359-380.
  • Morrell, P. S. (2012). Moving boxes by air: the economics of international air cargo. Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
  • OECD. (2020). OECD.Stat Metadata Viewer. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://stats.oecd.org/OECDStat_Metadata/ShowMetadata.ashxDataset=SNA_TABLE7A&ShowOnWeb=true&Lang=en
  • ReportLinker. (2019). Europe Air Cargo Market to 2027 - Regional Analysis and Forecasts by Type; Service; and End User https://www.reportlinker.com/p05783117/Europe-Air-Cargo-Market-to-Regional-Analysis-and-Forecasts-by-Type-Service-and-End-User.html?utm_source=GNW
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do Xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
  • Shiao, G.-C., & Hwang, C.-C. (2013). Analyzing competition of international air cargo carriers in the Asian general air cargo markets. Transport Policy, 27, 164-170.
  • Suryani, E., Chou, S.-Y., & Chen, C.-H. (2012). Dynamic simulation model of air cargo demand forecast and terminal capacity planning. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 28, 27-41.
  • The World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=IS.SHP.GOOD.TU&country=
  • Totamane, R., Dasgupta, A., & Rao, S. (2014). Air Cargo Demand Modeling and Prediction. IEEE Systems Journal, 8(1), 52-62.
  • Wadud, Z. (2013). Simultaneous Modeling of Passenger and Cargo Demand at an Airport. Transportation Research Record, 2336(1), 63-74.
  • Wang, G. H. K., Maling, W., & McCarthy, E. (1981). Functional forms and aggregate U.S. domestic air cargo demand: 1950–1977. Transportation Research Part A: General, 15(3), 249-256.
  • Wu, M.-C., & Morrell, P. (2007, August 19-22, 2007). China's Air Cargo Demand: Future Market Developments and Implications Aviation: A World of Growth. The 29th International Air Transport Conference, Irving Texas, United States.
  • Yao, S., & Yang, X. (2012). Air transport and regional economic growth in China. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 19(3), 318-329.

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 118 - 125, 24.07.2022

Serdar Alnıpak Süleyman Kale

https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1053662

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Alıcı, A., & Akar, A. S. (2020). Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Cargo Demand: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 20(48), 11-23.
  • Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric analysis of panel data (6th Ed.). Springer.
  • Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
  • Boeing. (2021). World Air Cargo Forecast 2020–2039. https://www.utikad.org.tr/images/BilgiBankasi/worldaircargoforecast20202039-1988.pdf
  • Brooks, C. (2004). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (4th Ed). Cambridge University Press, UK.
  • Chen, S.-C., Kuo, S.-Y., Chang, K.-W., & Wang, Y.-T. (2012). Improving the forecasting accuracy of air passenger and air cargo demand: the application of back-propagation neural networks. Transportation Planning and Technology, 35(3), 373-392.
  • Chi, J., & Baek, J. (2012). Price and income elasticities of demand for air transportation: Empirical evidence from US airfreight industry. Journal of Air Transport Management, 20, 18-19.
  • EUROSTAT. (2020). Eurostat Data Browser. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tin00151/default/table?lang=en
  • Hakim, M. M., & Merkert, R. (2016). The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia. Journal of Transport Geography, 56, 120-127.
  • Hsu, C.-I., Li, H.-C., Liao, P., & Hansen, M. M. (2009). Responses of air cargo carriers to industrial changes. Journal of Air Transport Management, 15(6), 330-336.
  • Hwang, C.-C., & Shiao, G.-C. (2011). Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. Journal of Transport Geography, 19(4), 738-744.
  • IATA. (2020). Air Cargo Market Analysis. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis-july-2020/
  • IATA. (2021). Air Cargo Market Analysis https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis---january-2021/
  • Kiracı, K., & Battal, Ü. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of air transportation: A VAR analysis on Turkey. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 17(4), 1536-1557.
  • Kiracı, K., & Akan, E. (2020). Empirical analysis of the relationship between trade wars and sea-air transportation. Economics and Business Review, 6(3), 23-44.
  • KPMG. (2021). The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2021: Route to Recovery. https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/ie/pdf/2021/01/ie-aviation-industry-leaders-report-route-to-recovery.pdf
  • Kupfer, F., Meersman, H., Onghena, E., & Van de Voorde, E. (2017). The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo. Journal of Air Transport Management, 61, 6-14.
  • Li, H., Bai, J., Cui, X., Li, Y., & Sun, S. (2020). A new secondary decomposition-ensemble approach with cuckoo search optimization for air cargo forecasting. Applied Soft Computing, 90, 106161.
  • Lo, W. W. L., Wan, Y., & Zhang, A. (2015). Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 78, 309-324.
  • Magaña, U., Mansouri, S. A., & Spiegler, V. L. M. (2017). Improving demand forecasting in the air cargo handling industry: a case study. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 20(4), 359-380.
  • Morrell, P. S. (2012). Moving boxes by air: the economics of international air cargo. Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
  • OECD. (2020). OECD.Stat Metadata Viewer. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://stats.oecd.org/OECDStat_Metadata/ShowMetadata.ashxDataset=SNA_TABLE7A&ShowOnWeb=true&Lang=en
  • ReportLinker. (2019). Europe Air Cargo Market to 2027 - Regional Analysis and Forecasts by Type; Service; and End User https://www.reportlinker.com/p05783117/Europe-Air-Cargo-Market-to-Regional-Analysis-and-Forecasts-by-Type-Service-and-End-User.html?utm_source=GNW
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do Xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
  • Shiao, G.-C., & Hwang, C.-C. (2013). Analyzing competition of international air cargo carriers in the Asian general air cargo markets. Transport Policy, 27, 164-170.
  • Suryani, E., Chou, S.-Y., & Chen, C.-H. (2012). Dynamic simulation model of air cargo demand forecast and terminal capacity planning. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 28, 27-41.
  • The World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=IS.SHP.GOOD.TU&country=
  • Totamane, R., Dasgupta, A., & Rao, S. (2014). Air Cargo Demand Modeling and Prediction. IEEE Systems Journal, 8(1), 52-62.
  • Wadud, Z. (2013). Simultaneous Modeling of Passenger and Cargo Demand at an Airport. Transportation Research Record, 2336(1), 63-74.
  • Wang, G. H. K., Maling, W., & McCarthy, E. (1981). Functional forms and aggregate U.S. domestic air cargo demand: 1950–1977. Transportation Research Part A: General, 15(3), 249-256.
  • Wu, M.-C., & Morrell, P. (2007, August 19-22, 2007). China's Air Cargo Demand: Future Market Developments and Implications Aviation: A World of Growth. The 29th International Air Transport Conference, Irving Texas, United States.
  • Yao, S., & Yang, X. (2012). Air transport and regional economic growth in China. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 19(3), 318-329.
Toplam 33 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Serdar Alnıpak 0000-0002-5722-9960

Süleyman Kale 0000-0001-7208-1872

Yayımlanma Tarihi 24 Temmuz 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 5 Ocak 2022
Kabul Tarihi 27 Mayıs 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Alnıpak, S., & Kale, S. (2022). Determinants of Air Cargo Demand in The European Region. Journal of Aviation, 6(2), 118-125. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1053662
 Kapak Resmi İndir

Journal of Aviation - JAV 

www.javsci.com - editor@javsci.com


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