METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Erşan Ömer Yüzer; Altuğ Bozkurt

doi:10.17780/ksujes.1163446

TR EN

METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Abstract

Doğru ışınım tahmini, fotovoltaik (PV) santralinin verimliliğini arttırarak şebekenin etkin bir şekilde programlanmasına ve güç kalitesinin iyileştirilmesine olanak sağlar. Bu çalışma, güneş enerjisi bakımından verimli bir yer olan Hakkâri ilinde kurulan bir meteoroloji ölçüm istasyonu verileri aracılığıyla küresel güneş ışınım tahmininde yapay sinir ağları (YSA) parametrelerinin potansiyelini göstermektedir. Meteoroloji istasyonundan zaman serisine bağlı olarak ölçülen, rüzgâr hızı, sıcaklık, basınç ve nem parametreleri kullanılarak eş zamanlı gerçekleşen güneş ışınım değerleri YSA modeli oluşturularak tahmin edilmiştir. Oluşturulan model YSA’da yaygın olarak kullanılan çeşitli eğitim algoritmaları ve aktivasyon fonksiyonları ile denenmiş ve en iyi sonuç elde edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Kullanılan modelin performansı istatistiksel göstergeler kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Kullanılan veri seti parametrelerine göre güneş ışınım tahmininde, “trainlm” eğitim algoritması ile “poslin” aktivasyon fonksiyonu kullanılarak oluşturulan model 0,97 regresyon değeri, %1,16 ortalama kare hatası (MSE) ve %0,0881 normalize kök ortalama kare hatası (nRMSE) değeri ile güneş ışınım tahmininde en iyi performansı göstermiştir.

Keywords

EVALUATİON OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK PARAMETERS IN SOLAR RADIATION PREDICTION USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA

Abstract

Accurate radiation prediction increases photovoltaic (PV) plant efficiency so ensures effective programming of the grid and improvement of power quality. This study demonstrates the prediction potential of artificial neural networks (ANN) parameters in global solar radiation through data from a meteorological measurement station established in Hakkari, Turkey, which is a solar-efficient place. The occurring simultaneous solar radiation values were estimated using the wind speed, temperature, pressure and humidity parameters obtained from the meteorology station depending on the time series, and the relationships between these parameters were modeled using ANN. The created model was tested with various training algorithms and activation functions, and the best result was tried to be obtained. The performance of this model was evaluated using statistical indicators. In prediction of solar radiation according to used data set parameters, the model established by using “trainlm” training algorithm and “poslin” activation function showed the best performance in solar radiation prediction with 0.97 regression value, 1.16% mean square error (MSE) and 0.0881% normalized root mean square error (nRMSE).

Keywords

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Electrical Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Erşan Ömer Yüzer
0000-0002-9089-1358
Türkiye

Altuğ Bozkurt ^*
0000-0001-6458-1260
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 3, 2022

Submission Date

August 17, 2022

Acceptance Date

October 24, 2022

Published in Issue

Year 2022 Volume: 25 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1163446

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA48WZ58YU

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Yüzer, E. Ö., & Bozkurt, A. (2022). METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 25(4), 746-759. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1163446

AMA

1.Yüzer EÖ, Bozkurt A. METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. KSU J. Eng. Sci. 2022;25(4):746-759. doi:10.17780/ksujes.1163446

Chicago

Yüzer, Erşan Ömer, and Altuğ Bozkurt. 2022. “METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 25 (4): 746-59. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1163446.

EndNote

Yüzer EÖ, Bozkurt A (December 1, 2022) METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 25 4 746–759.

IEEE

[1]E. Ö. Yüzer and A. Bozkurt, “METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”, KSU J. Eng. Sci., vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 746–759, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.17780/ksujes.1163446.

ISNAD

Yüzer, Erşan Ömer - Bozkurt, Altuğ. “METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 25/4 (December 1, 2022): 746-759. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1163446.

JAMA

1.Yüzer EÖ, Bozkurt A. METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. KSU J. Eng. Sci. 2022;25:746–759.

MLA

Yüzer, Erşan Ömer, and Altuğ Bozkurt. “METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 4, Dec. 2022, pp. 746-59, doi:10.17780/ksujes.1163446.

Vancouver

1.Erşan Ömer Yüzer, Altuğ Bozkurt. METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. KSU J. Eng. Sci. 2022 Dec. 1;25(4):746-59. doi:10.17780/ksujes.1163446

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