METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Erşan Ömer Yüzer; Altuğ Bozkurt

doi:10.17780/ksujes.1163446

TR EN

METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Öz

Doğru ışınım tahmini, fotovoltaik (PV) santralinin verimliliğini arttırarak şebekenin etkin bir şekilde programlanmasına ve güç kalitesinin iyileştirilmesine olanak sağlar. Bu çalışma, güneş enerjisi bakımından verimli bir yer olan Hakkâri ilinde kurulan bir meteoroloji ölçüm istasyonu verileri aracılığıyla küresel güneş ışınım tahmininde yapay sinir ağları (YSA) parametrelerinin potansiyelini göstermektedir. Meteoroloji istasyonundan zaman serisine bağlı olarak ölçülen, rüzgâr hızı, sıcaklık, basınç ve nem parametreleri kullanılarak eş zamanlı gerçekleşen güneş ışınım değerleri YSA modeli oluşturularak tahmin edilmiştir. Oluşturulan model YSA’da yaygın olarak kullanılan çeşitli eğitim algoritmaları ve aktivasyon fonksiyonları ile denenmiş ve en iyi sonuç elde edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Kullanılan modelin performansı istatistiksel göstergeler kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Kullanılan veri seti parametrelerine göre güneş ışınım tahmininde, “trainlm” eğitim algoritması ile “poslin” aktivasyon fonksiyonu kullanılarak oluşturulan model 0,97 regresyon değeri, %1,16 ortalama kare hatası (MSE) ve %0,0881 normalize kök ortalama kare hatası (nRMSE) değeri ile güneş ışınım tahmininde en iyi performansı göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Electrical Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Erşan Ömer Yüzer
0000-0002-9089-1358
Türkiye

Altuğ Bozkurt ^*
0000-0001-6458-1260
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 3, 2022

Submission Date

August 17, 2022

Acceptance Date

October 24, 2022

Published in Issue

Year 1970 Volume: 25 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1163446

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA48WZ58YU

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Yüzer, E. Ö., & Bozkurt, A. (2022). METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 25(4), 746-759. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1163446

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METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK GÜNEŞ IŞINIM TAHMİNİNDE YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI PARAMETRELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

EVALUATİON OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK PARAMETERS IN SOLAR RADIATION PREDICTION USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA

Abstract

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References

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Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

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Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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Cited By

Future drought projections with CMIP6 in Eğirdir Lake basin (Türkiye)

Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Yenilenebilir Güneş Enerjisi Kaynağının Öngörüsü