NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Elif Toplu; Osman Kırtel

TR EN

NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 23 Kasım 2022 Mw 6,0 Gölyaka (Düzce) Depremi’ne ait kuvvetli yer hareketi kayıtları kullanılarak, NGA-West2 kapsamında yer alan ASK14, BSSA14, CB14 ve CY14 yer hareketi tahmin denklemlerinin (GMPE) spektral şekil temsili ve genlik tahmin başarıları yerel zemin koşullarına (Vs30) bağlı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Modellerden elde edilen teorik spektrumlar ile gözlemsel veriler arasındaki uyum, regresyon analizi ve standart rezidüel hesaplamaları ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, GMPE performansının zemin özelliklerine duyarlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Kaya zemin niteliğindeki istasyonlarda (Vs30 = 914 m/s) modeller yüksek korelasyon katsayıları (R² ≈ 0,76–0,90) ve düşük sistematik sapma ile iyi uyum sergilemiştir. Buna karşılık, düşük Vs30 değerlerine sahip yumuşak ve orta yumuşak zeminlerde uyum belirgin şekilde azalmış (R² ≈ 0,11–0,29) ve rezidüel saçılım artmıştır. Kısa periyot aralığında (0,1–0,4 s) zemin amplifikasyonu etkileri gözlenirken, uzun periyotlarda (T > 2 s) bazı modellerin yer hareketini sistematik olarak eksik tahmin ettiği belirlenmiştir. Bulgular, GMPE performansının yalnızca büyüklük ve mesafeye değil, yerel zemin koşullarına da güçlü biçimde bağlı olduğunu ve Vs30 parametresinin tek başına yerel zemin etkilerini tam olarak temsil etmekte yetersiz kalabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

EVALUATION OF SPECTRAL SHAPE REPRESENTATION AND AMPLITUDE PREDICTION PERFORMANCE OF NGA-WEST2 GROUND MOTION MODELS BASED ON SITE CONDITIONS

Abstract

This study evaluates the spectral shape representation and amplitude prediction performance of NGA-West2 ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), namely ASK14, BSSA14, CB14, and CY14, using strong ground-motion records from the 23 November 2022 Mw 6.0 Gölyaka (Düzce) earthquake. The compatibility between theoretical response spectra obtained from the models and observed data was assessed through regression analysis and standardized residual calculations, considering local site conditions (Vs30). The results indicate that GMPE performance is strongly influenced by site characteristics. At rock sites (Vs30 = 914 m/s), the models exhibited high correlation coefficients (R² ≈ 0.76–0.90) and low systematic bias, demonstrating good agreement with observations. In contrast, at soft and medium-soft soil sites with lower Vs30 values, model compatibility decreased significantly (R² ≈ 0.11–0.29), accompanied by increased residual scatter. Site amplification effects were observed in the short-period range (0.1–0.4 s), while at long periods (T > 2 s) some models systematically underpredicted ground-motion amplitudes. Overall, the findings highlight that GMPE performance is not solely controlled by magnitude and distance parameters but is also highly sensitive to local site conditions. Moreover, the results suggest that Vs30 alone may not be sufficient to fully capture local site amplification effects in regional seismic hazard assessments.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Civil Engineering (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Elif Toplu ^*
0000-0001-8019-560X
Türkiye

Osman Kırtel
0000-0001-6451-0323
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 3, 2026

Submission Date

November 14, 2025

Acceptance Date

March 2, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 29 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Toplu, E., & Kırtel, O. (2026). NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 29(2), 617-628. https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF

AMA

1.Toplu E, Kırtel O. NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. KSU J. Eng. Sci. 2026;29(2):617-628. https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF

Chicago

Toplu, Elif, and Osman Kırtel. 2026. “NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 29 (2): 617-28. https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF.

EndNote

Toplu E, Kırtel O (June 1, 2026) NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 29 2 617–628.

IEEE

[1]E. Toplu and O. Kırtel, “NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”, KSU J. Eng. Sci., vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 617–628, June 2026, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF

ISNAD

Toplu, Elif - Kırtel, Osman. “NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 29/2 (June 1, 2026): 617-628. https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF.

JAMA

1.Toplu E, Kırtel O. NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. KSU J. Eng. Sci. 2026;29:617–628.

MLA

Toplu, Elif, and Osman Kırtel. “NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 29, no. 2, June 2026, pp. 617-28, https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF.

Vancouver

1.Elif Toplu, Osman Kırtel. NGA-WEST2 AZALIM MODELLERİNİN SPEKTRAL ŞEKİL TEMSİLİ VE GENLİK TAHMİN BAŞARISININ ZEMİN KOŞULLARINA GÖRE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ. KSU J. Eng. Sci. [Internet]. 2026 Jun. 1;29(2):617-28. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA55KF45WF