Research Article
Year 2022,
, 285 - 295, 03.09.2022
Abstract
Su kaynakları planlaması ve yönetiminde kuraklığın tanımlanması, izlenmesi ve karakterizasyonu büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Samsun kent merkezinde bulunan 17030 no’lu meteoroloji istasyonundan 1938-2020 dönemi için aylık yağış verileri ve Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ile Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) kullanılarak kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın ilk kısmında, iklim değişikliğinin yağış, sıcaklık, nispi nem ve buharlaşma verileri üzerindeki etkileri %95 güven aralığına göre incelenmiştir. Sıcaklık verisinde artan bir eğilim söz konusu iken, diğer verilerinde herhangi bir eğilim gözlemlenmemiştir. SPI ve SPEI arasında 1 aylık zaman serilerinde güçlü bir ilişki elde edilirken, 3-,6-, 9-, 12 ve 24 aylık zaman serilerinde bu ilişki güçlü olsa da R2 değerlerinde azalma olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Samsun ili için kuraklık kategorileri arasında en fazla normal kuraklık görülmesine rağmen, çok şiddetli kuraklık kategorisi ise en az paya sahiptir. İki indeks arasında çok az farklılık gözlemlenmiştir. Ancak, SPI çok şiddetli kuraklık kategorisinde, SPEI indeksine göre daha hassas sonuçlar verdiği tespit edilmiştir. İki indeks ile elde edilen bulgulara göre, 1950 yılında hem kuraklık süresi bakımından hem de kuraklık şiddeti bakımından uzun süren bir kuraklık gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, Samsun ili kuraklık risk değerlendirmesi açısından önem taşımaktadır.
Keywords
Supporting Institution
Türkiye Ulusal Jeodezi ve Jeofizik Birliği (TUJJB), Türkiye Ulusal Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Afetler Programı (TUMEHAP)
Project Number
TUJJB-TUMEHAP-2020-02
References
- AghaKouchak, A., & Nakhjiri, N. (2012). A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044037.
- Aksoy, H., Önöz, B., Çetin, M., Yüce, M.İ., Eriş, E., Selek, B., Aksu, H., Burgan, H.İ., Eşit, M., Orta, S. and Çavuş, Y.(2018) Edirne için Kuraklık Şiddet-Süre-Frekans Eğrileri. HİDRO’2018: Ulusal Hidrojeoloji ve Su Kaynakları Sempozyumu, 27-29 Eylül 2018, Beytepe, Ankara
- Ashraf, M., & Routray, J. K. (2013). Perception and understanding of drought and coping strategies of farming households in north-west Balochistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5, 49-60.
- Bannayan, M., Sanjani, S., Alizadeh, A., Lotfabadi, S. S., & Mohamadian, A. (2010). Association between climate indices, aridity index, and rainfed crop yield in northeast of Iran. Field crops research, 118(2), 105-114.
- Cavus, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2019). Spatial drought characterization for Seyhan River basin in the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Water, 11(7), 1331.
- Constas, M., Frankenberger, T., & Hoddinott, J. (2014). Resilience measurement principles: Toward an agenda for measurement design. Food Security Information Network, Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group, Technical Series, 1.
- Dabanlı, İ., Mishra, A. K., & Şen, Z. (2017). Long-term spatio-temporal drought variability in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 552, 779-792.
- Dai, A. (2011). Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(1), 45-65.
- Dai, A., (2013). Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 52–58. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633
- Danandeh Mehr, A., Sorman, A. U., Kahya, E., & Hesami Afshar, M. (2020). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(2), 254-268.
- Degefu, M. A., & Bewket, W. (2015). Trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence in the omo‐ghibe river basin, ethiopia. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 97(2), 395-414.
- Edwards, D.C. and McKee, T.B. (1997) Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United States at Multiple Times Scales. Atmospheric Science Paper, 634, 1-30.
- Eris, E., Cavus, Y., Aksoy, H., Burgan, H. I., Aksu, H., & Boyacioglu, H. (2020). Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought over Kucuk Menderes River Basin in the Aegean Region of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142(3), 1515-1530.
- Gumus, V., Simsek, O., Avsaroglu, Y., & Agun, B. (2021). Spatio‐temporal trend analysis of drought in the GAP Region, Turkey. Natural Hazards, 109(2), 1759-1776.
- Heim, R.R. (2017). A Comparison of the Early Twenty-First Century Drought in the United States to the 1930s and 1950s Drought Episodes. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 2579–2592. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0080.1
- Hekimoglu B., &Altındeger M., &Demirbas A, R. (2007). Samsun İlinin Fiziki Durumu ve Avantajlari. https://samsun.tarimorman.gov.tr/Belgeler/Yayinlar/Kitaplarimiz/samsun_ilinin_fiziki_durumu_ve_avantajlari.pdf
- Jayasselan, A. T. (2006). Drought and Floods Assessment and Monitoring Using Remote Sensing and GIS [Electronic Version]. Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS Application in Agricultural Meteorology, 2006, 291-313.
- Kendall MG. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edn and 5th edn. Charles Griffin: London. ISBN-13: 978-0195208375.
- Mann HB. (1945). Non parametric tests again trend. Econometrica 13:245–259.
- Mckee T.B, Doesken N.J, Kleist J., (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January 1993, Anaheim, CA, 179-184.
- McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J., (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.
- Min, S. K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Hegerl, G. C. (2011). Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470(7334), 378-381.
- Mo, K.C., Chelliah, M. (2006). The Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 45, 1362–1375. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2402.1
- Pal, J. S., Small, E. E., & Eltahir, E. A. (2000). Simulation of regional‐scale water and energy budgets: Representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 105(D24), 29579-29594.
- Palmer, W.C., (1965). Meteorological Drought. U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau.
- ŞAHİN, K., & YILMAZ, A. (2009). Samsun İlinde Doğal Kaynaklara Dayali Turizm Arzı ve Planlanmasi. Journal of International Social Research, 2(7).
- Sen PK. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63: 1379–1389, DOI: 10.2307/2285891.
- Sheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2008). Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Climate dynamics, 31(1), 79-105.
- Simsek, O. (2021). Hydrological drought analysis of Mediterranean basins, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(20), 1-17. Thom, H.C.S., (1958). A Note on the Gamma Distribution, Monthly Weather Review, 86 (4): 117-122.
- Thomas, J., & Prasannakumar, V. (2016). Temporal analysis of rainfall (1871–2012) and drought characteristics over a tropical monsoon-dominated State (Kerala) of India. Journal of Hydrology, 534, 266-280.
- Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J. Clim. 23: 1696-1718.
- Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I., (2009). A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Clim. 23, 1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
- Wang, Q., Shi, P., Lei, T., Geng, G., Liu, J., Mo, X., ... & Wu, J. (2015). The alleviating trend of drought in the Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain of China based on the daily SPEI. International Journal of Climatology, 35(13), 3760-3769.
- Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions.
- Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water international, 10(3), 111-120.
- WMO (2016) Guidelines on the definition and monitoring of extreme weather and climate events
- Yu, M., Li, Q., Hayes, M. J., Svoboda, M. D., & Heim, R. R. (2014). Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index: 1951–2010?. International Journal of Climatology, 34(3), 545-558.
- Yuce, M. I., & Esit, M. (2021). Drought monitoring in Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 1-22.
- YÜCE, M. İ., & Musa, E. Ş. İ. T. (2020). Ceyhan Havzasının Kuraklık Risk Haritasının SPI ve SPEI Metotları İle Belirlenmesi. Su Kaynakları, 5(2), 1-8. Yue, Y.S., Zou, S., Whittemore, D. (1993), "Non-Parametric Trend Analysis of Water Quality Data of Rivers in Kansas", Journal of Hydrology, 150(1), 61-80.
- Zhan, W., Guan, K., Sheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2016). Depiction of drought over sub‐Saharan Africa using reanalyses precipitation data sets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(18), 10-555.
Year 2022,
, 285 - 295, 03.09.2022
Abstract
Project Number
TUJJB-TUMEHAP-2020-02
References
- AghaKouchak, A., & Nakhjiri, N. (2012). A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044037.
- Aksoy, H., Önöz, B., Çetin, M., Yüce, M.İ., Eriş, E., Selek, B., Aksu, H., Burgan, H.İ., Eşit, M., Orta, S. and Çavuş, Y.(2018) Edirne için Kuraklık Şiddet-Süre-Frekans Eğrileri. HİDRO’2018: Ulusal Hidrojeoloji ve Su Kaynakları Sempozyumu, 27-29 Eylül 2018, Beytepe, Ankara
- Ashraf, M., & Routray, J. K. (2013). Perception and understanding of drought and coping strategies of farming households in north-west Balochistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5, 49-60.
- Bannayan, M., Sanjani, S., Alizadeh, A., Lotfabadi, S. S., & Mohamadian, A. (2010). Association between climate indices, aridity index, and rainfed crop yield in northeast of Iran. Field crops research, 118(2), 105-114.
- Cavus, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2019). Spatial drought characterization for Seyhan River basin in the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Water, 11(7), 1331.
- Constas, M., Frankenberger, T., & Hoddinott, J. (2014). Resilience measurement principles: Toward an agenda for measurement design. Food Security Information Network, Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group, Technical Series, 1.
- Dabanlı, İ., Mishra, A. K., & Şen, Z. (2017). Long-term spatio-temporal drought variability in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 552, 779-792.
- Dai, A. (2011). Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(1), 45-65.
- Dai, A., (2013). Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 52–58. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633
- Danandeh Mehr, A., Sorman, A. U., Kahya, E., & Hesami Afshar, M. (2020). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(2), 254-268.
- Degefu, M. A., & Bewket, W. (2015). Trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence in the omo‐ghibe river basin, ethiopia. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 97(2), 395-414.
- Edwards, D.C. and McKee, T.B. (1997) Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United States at Multiple Times Scales. Atmospheric Science Paper, 634, 1-30.
- Eris, E., Cavus, Y., Aksoy, H., Burgan, H. I., Aksu, H., & Boyacioglu, H. (2020). Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought over Kucuk Menderes River Basin in the Aegean Region of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142(3), 1515-1530.
- Gumus, V., Simsek, O., Avsaroglu, Y., & Agun, B. (2021). Spatio‐temporal trend analysis of drought in the GAP Region, Turkey. Natural Hazards, 109(2), 1759-1776.
- Heim, R.R. (2017). A Comparison of the Early Twenty-First Century Drought in the United States to the 1930s and 1950s Drought Episodes. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 2579–2592. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0080.1
- Hekimoglu B., &Altındeger M., &Demirbas A, R. (2007). Samsun İlinin Fiziki Durumu ve Avantajlari. https://samsun.tarimorman.gov.tr/Belgeler/Yayinlar/Kitaplarimiz/samsun_ilinin_fiziki_durumu_ve_avantajlari.pdf
- Jayasselan, A. T. (2006). Drought and Floods Assessment and Monitoring Using Remote Sensing and GIS [Electronic Version]. Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS Application in Agricultural Meteorology, 2006, 291-313.
- Kendall MG. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edn and 5th edn. Charles Griffin: London. ISBN-13: 978-0195208375.
- Mann HB. (1945). Non parametric tests again trend. Econometrica 13:245–259.
- Mckee T.B, Doesken N.J, Kleist J., (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January 1993, Anaheim, CA, 179-184.
- McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J., (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.
- Min, S. K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Hegerl, G. C. (2011). Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470(7334), 378-381.
- Mo, K.C., Chelliah, M. (2006). The Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 45, 1362–1375. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2402.1
- Pal, J. S., Small, E. E., & Eltahir, E. A. (2000). Simulation of regional‐scale water and energy budgets: Representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 105(D24), 29579-29594.
- Palmer, W.C., (1965). Meteorological Drought. U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau.
- ŞAHİN, K., & YILMAZ, A. (2009). Samsun İlinde Doğal Kaynaklara Dayali Turizm Arzı ve Planlanmasi. Journal of International Social Research, 2(7).
- Sen PK. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63: 1379–1389, DOI: 10.2307/2285891.
- Sheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2008). Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Climate dynamics, 31(1), 79-105.
- Simsek, O. (2021). Hydrological drought analysis of Mediterranean basins, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(20), 1-17. Thom, H.C.S., (1958). A Note on the Gamma Distribution, Monthly Weather Review, 86 (4): 117-122.
- Thomas, J., & Prasannakumar, V. (2016). Temporal analysis of rainfall (1871–2012) and drought characteristics over a tropical monsoon-dominated State (Kerala) of India. Journal of Hydrology, 534, 266-280.
- Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J. Clim. 23: 1696-1718.
- Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I., (2009). A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Clim. 23, 1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
- Wang, Q., Shi, P., Lei, T., Geng, G., Liu, J., Mo, X., ... & Wu, J. (2015). The alleviating trend of drought in the Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain of China based on the daily SPEI. International Journal of Climatology, 35(13), 3760-3769.
- Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions.
- Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water international, 10(3), 111-120.
- WMO (2016) Guidelines on the definition and monitoring of extreme weather and climate events
- Yu, M., Li, Q., Hayes, M. J., Svoboda, M. D., & Heim, R. R. (2014). Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index: 1951–2010?. International Journal of Climatology, 34(3), 545-558.
- Yuce, M. I., & Esit, M. (2021). Drought monitoring in Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 1-22.
- YÜCE, M. İ., & Musa, E. Ş. İ. T. (2020). Ceyhan Havzasının Kuraklık Risk Haritasının SPI ve SPEI Metotları İle Belirlenmesi. Su Kaynakları, 5(2), 1-8. Yue, Y.S., Zou, S., Whittemore, D. (1993), "Non-Parametric Trend Analysis of Water Quality Data of Rivers in Kansas", Journal of Hydrology, 150(1), 61-80.
- Zhan, W., Guan, K., Sheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2016). Depiction of drought over sub‐Saharan Africa using reanalyses precipitation data sets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(18), 10-555.
There are 40 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Civil Engineering |
| Journal Section | Civil Engineering |
| Authors | |
| Project Number | TUJJB-TUMEHAP-2020-02 |
| Publication Date | September 3, 2022 |
| Submission Date | April 25, 2022 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2022 |