İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Hasan Törehan Babacan

doi:10.17780/ksujes.1657507

TR EN

İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Rize ve Antalya illerindeki aylık yağış rejimi değişimlerini ve gelecekteki yağış-akış tepkisini iklim değişikliği etkisi altında incelemektedir. Tarihsel yağış verileri ile CMIP5 kapsamında RCP8.5 emisyon senaryosu kullanılarak gelecek projeksiyonları değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmada, Markov Zinciri yöntemiyle yağış rejimi geçiş matrisleri oluşturulmuş ve Çok Değişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Eğrileri (MARS), Karar Ağaçları Yöntemi (CART) ve Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) modelleri kullanılarak akış tahminleri yapılmıştır. Antalya’da tarihsel dönemde Ocak ayında ortalama 148 mm yağış gözlenirken, GFDL projeksiyonuna göre bu değerin 120 mm’ye düşmesi, HadGEM projeksiyonuna göre ise 160 mm’ye çıkması beklenmektedir. Rize’de tarihsel yıllık ortalama yağış 2300 mm olup, gelecek dönemde GFDL modeline göre %5 azalış, HadGEM modeline göre ise %3 artış tahmin edilmiştir. Akış tahminlerinde, Antalya için en başarılı model MARS (R=0.74, RMSE=36.79), Rize için ise CART (R=0.84, RMSE=1.04) olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, iklim değişikliğiyle birlikte her iki şehirde de yağış rejimi geçişlerinin keskinleşeceğini, bu durumun Antalya’da tarımsal faaliyetleri, Rize’de ise heyelan ve taşkın risklerini artıracağını göstermektedir. Çalışma, su yönetimi ve afet planlaması açısından kritik bulgular sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Numerical Modelization in Civil Engineering , Water Resources Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Hasan Törehan Babacan ^*
0000-0001-9570-1966
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 3, 2025

Submission Date

March 13, 2025

Acceptance Date

May 7, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 1970 Volume: 28 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1657507

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA33CE27HZ

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Babacan, H. T. (2025). İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(2), 1020-1035. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1657507

Cited By

Sıcaklık ve güneşlenme süresine dayalı günlük yağış tahmini: Antalya ilinde istasyon bazlı bir modelleme yaklaşımı

Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.1743641

İklim Değişikliği Algısı Ölçeği’nin Türkçe Uyarlaması: Geçerlik ve Güvenirlik Çalışması

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https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.1755180

INVESTIGATION OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION REGIME CHANGE AND FUTURE RAINFALL-RUNOFF RESPONSE IN COASTAL REGIONS UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF RIZE AND ANTALYA

İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

INVESTIGATION OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION REGIME CHANGE AND FUTURE RAINFALL-RUNOFF RESPONSE IN COASTAL REGIONS UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF RIZE AND ANTALYA

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Primary Language

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Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite

Cited By

Sıcaklık ve güneşlenme süresine dayalı günlük yağış tahmini: Antalya ilinde istasyon bazlı bir modelleme yaklaşımı

İklim Değişikliği Algısı Ölçeği’nin Türkçe Uyarlaması: Geçerlik ve Güvenirlik Çalışması