İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Hasan Törehan Babacan

doi:10.17780/ksujes.1657507

TR EN

İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Rize ve Antalya illerindeki aylık yağış rejimi değişimlerini ve gelecekteki yağış-akış tepkisini iklim değişikliği etkisi altında incelemektedir. Tarihsel yağış verileri ile CMIP5 kapsamında RCP8.5 emisyon senaryosu kullanılarak gelecek projeksiyonları değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmada, Markov Zinciri yöntemiyle yağış rejimi geçiş matrisleri oluşturulmuş ve Çok Değişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Eğrileri (MARS), Karar Ağaçları Yöntemi (CART) ve Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) modelleri kullanılarak akış tahminleri yapılmıştır. Antalya’da tarihsel dönemde Ocak ayında ortalama 148 mm yağış gözlenirken, GFDL projeksiyonuna göre bu değerin 120 mm’ye düşmesi, HadGEM projeksiyonuna göre ise 160 mm’ye çıkması beklenmektedir. Rize’de tarihsel yıllık ortalama yağış 2300 mm olup, gelecek dönemde GFDL modeline göre %5 azalış, HadGEM modeline göre ise %3 artış tahmin edilmiştir. Akış tahminlerinde, Antalya için en başarılı model MARS (R=0.74, RMSE=36.79), Rize için ise CART (R=0.84, RMSE=1.04) olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, iklim değişikliğiyle birlikte her iki şehirde de yağış rejimi geçişlerinin keskinleşeceğini, bu durumun Antalya’da tarımsal faaliyetleri, Rize’de ise heyelan ve taşkın risklerini artıracağını göstermektedir. Çalışma, su yönetimi ve afet planlaması açısından kritik bulgular sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

INVESTIGATION OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION REGIME CHANGE AND FUTURE RAINFALL-RUNOFF RESPONSE IN COASTAL REGIONS UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF RIZE AND ANTALYA

Abstract

This study examines changes in monthly precipitation regimes and future precipitation-runoff responses in Rize and Antalya under the impact of climate change. Historical precipitation data from 1970 to 2022 and future projections based on the RCP8.5 emission scenario of CMIP5 were analyzed. Markov Chain transition matrices were created to evaluate precipitation regime shifts, while Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), and Artificial Neural Networks (YSA) models were used for streamflow predictions. In Antalya, the historical average precipitation in January was 148 mm, while projections indicate a decrease to 120 mm according to the GFDL model and an increase to 160 mm according to the HadGEM model. In Rize, the historical annual average precipitation is 2300 mm, with a projected 5% decrease in the GFDL model and a 3% increase in the HadGEM model. For streamflow prediction, MARS performed best in Antalya (R=0.74, RMSE=36.79), while CART was most accurate in Rize (R=0.84, RMSE=1.04). The results indicate that climate change will lead to more abrupt precipitation regime shifts, increasing agricultural risks in Antalya and landslide and flood risks in Rize. This study provides crucial insights for water management and disaster planning in coastal regions.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Numerical Modelization in Civil Engineering , Water Resources Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Hasan Törehan Babacan ^*
0000-0001-9570-1966
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 3, 2025

Submission Date

March 13, 2025

Acceptance Date

May 7, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 28 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1657507

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA33CE27HZ

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Babacan, H. T. (2025). İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(2), 1020-1035. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1657507

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https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.1755180