İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Hasan Törehan Babacan

doi:10.17780/ksujes.1657507

TR EN

İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Rize ve Antalya illerindeki aylık yağış rejimi değişimlerini ve gelecekteki yağış-akış tepkisini iklim değişikliği etkisi altında incelemektedir. Tarihsel yağış verileri ile CMIP5 kapsamında RCP8.5 emisyon senaryosu kullanılarak gelecek projeksiyonları değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmada, Markov Zinciri yöntemiyle yağış rejimi geçiş matrisleri oluşturulmuş ve Çok Değişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Eğrileri (MARS), Karar Ağaçları Yöntemi (CART) ve Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) modelleri kullanılarak akış tahminleri yapılmıştır. Antalya’da tarihsel dönemde Ocak ayında ortalama 148 mm yağış gözlenirken, GFDL projeksiyonuna göre bu değerin 120 mm’ye düşmesi, HadGEM projeksiyonuna göre ise 160 mm’ye çıkması beklenmektedir. Rize’de tarihsel yıllık ortalama yağış 2300 mm olup, gelecek dönemde GFDL modeline göre %5 azalış, HadGEM modeline göre ise %3 artış tahmin edilmiştir. Akış tahminlerinde, Antalya için en başarılı model MARS (R=0.74, RMSE=36.79), Rize için ise CART (R=0.84, RMSE=1.04) olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, iklim değişikliğiyle birlikte her iki şehirde de yağış rejimi geçişlerinin keskinleşeceğini, bu durumun Antalya’da tarımsal faaliyetleri, Rize’de ise heyelan ve taşkın risklerini artıracağını göstermektedir. Çalışma, su yönetimi ve afet planlaması açısından kritik bulgular sunmaktadır.

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

İnşaat Mühendisliğinde Sayısal Modelleme , Su Kaynakları Mühendisliği

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Hasan Törehan Babacan ^*
0000-0001-9570-1966
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

3 Haziran 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

13 Mart 2025

Kabul Tarihi

7 Mayıs 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 1970 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1657507

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA33CE27HZ

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Babacan, H. T. (2025). İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(2), 1020-1035. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1657507

Cited By

Sıcaklık ve güneşlenme süresine dayalı günlük yağış tahmini: Antalya ilinde istasyon bazlı bir modelleme yaklaşımı

Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.1743641

İklim Değişikliği Algısı Ölçeği’nin Türkçe Uyarlaması: Geçerlik ve Güvenirlik Çalışması

Afet ve Risk Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.1755180

İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ETKİSİ ALTINDA KIYI BÖLGELERİNDE AYLIK YAĞIŞ REJİMİ DEĞİŞİMİ VE GELECEK YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TEPKİSİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: RİZE VE ANTALYA ÇALIŞMASI

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

INVESTIGATION OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION REGIME CHANGE AND FUTURE RAINFALL-RUNOFF RESPONSE IN COASTAL REGIONS UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF RIZE AND ANTALYA

Abstract

Keywords

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster

Cited By

Sıcaklık ve güneşlenme süresine dayalı günlük yağış tahmini: Antalya ilinde istasyon bazlı bir modelleme yaklaşımı

İklim Değişikliği Algısı Ölçeği’nin Türkçe Uyarlaması: Geçerlik ve Güvenirlik Çalışması