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TÜRKİYE’DE YOL GÜVENLİĞİ PERFORMANSININ ÇOK KRİTERLİ DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: BÜTÜNLEŞİK CENTROIDOUS-RAM YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2025, Volume: 28 Issue: 4, 1928 - 1948, 03.12.2025

Tayfun Öztaş

Abstract

Yol güvenliği çok sayıda etkene bağlı olup, olası en küçük bir hata dahi ciddi yaralanmalara ve ölümlere neden olabilmektedir. Bu nedenle telafisi mümkün olmayan sonuçlarıyla trafik kazaları hem halk sağlığını hem de ülke ekonomilerini tehdit eden önemli bir sorun hâline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin 81 ili yol güvenliği açısından Çok Kriterli Karar Verme (ÇKKV) yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu verilerine dayanmakta olup dört aşamalı bir yöntem izlenmiştir. İlk aşamada Centroidous yöntemiyle kriter ağırlıkları belirlenmiş; en yüksek ağırlık bir milyon nüfusta trafik kaza sayısı kriterine, en düşük ağırlık ise sürücü belgesi olan kişi sayısı kriterine atanmıştır. İkinci aşamada RAM yöntemi ile iller yol güvenlik performansına göre sıralanmış; İstanbul en yüksek, Muğla ise en düşük performans gösteren iller olarak belirlenmiştir. Üçüncü aşamada, sıralama sonuçlarının kriter ağırlıklarındaki değişimlere duyarlılığını incelemek üzere beş farklı senaryo altında analiz yapılmıştır. Son aşamada ise COPRAS, MABAC, TOPSIS ve WASPAS yöntemleriyle karşılaştırmalı analiz yapılmış; önerilen yöntemin geçerliliği %91’in üzerinde korelasyon değerleriyle ile doğrulanmıştır.

Keywords

Yol güvenliği trafik kazaları RAM centroidous çkkv

References

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MULTI-CRITERIA EVALUATION OF ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE IN TÜRKİYE: AN INTEGRATED CENTROIDOUS-RAM APPROACH

Year 2025, Volume: 28 Issue: 4, 1928 - 1948, 03.12.2025

Tayfun Öztaş

Abstract

Road safety depends on numerous factors, and even the smallest error can result in severe injuries or fatalities.Therefore, with their irreversible consequences, traffic accidents have become a critical problem that threatens both public health and national economies. This study evaluates road safety in Türkiye’s 81 provinces through a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework using official data from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The analysis follows a four-stage methodology. First, criterion weights were determined using the Centroidous method, the highest weight was assigned to the criterion of the number of traffic accidents per million population, while the lowest weight was assigned to the criterion of the number of licensed drivers. Second, provinces were ranked based on their road safety performance using the RAM method. As a result, Istanbul was identified as the best-performing province, whereas Muğla was identified as the lowest-performing province. Third, a sensitivity analysis was conducted under five different scenarios to analyze the effect of the changes in the criteria weights on the ranking results. Finally, a comparative analysis was carried out using the COPRAS, MABAC, TOPSIS, and WASPAS methods, and the validity of the proposed approach was verified with a correlation exceeding 91%.

Keywords

Road safety traffic accidents RAM centroidous mcdm

References

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  • Ahmadpur, M., & Gokasar, I. (2024). Evaluation and comparison of administrative division-level road traffic safety indices of Egypt, England, Turkey, and the United States. Journal of Safety Research, 89, 251-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2024.04.007
  • Alrashdi, I., Ali, A. M., Sallam, K. M., & Abdel-Basset, M. (2025). Intelligent decision support framework for assessment of alternative vehicle technologies in transportation system: A sustainable approach toward environmental remedy. Sustainable Futures, 9(June 2025), 100472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100472
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  • Azık, D., Solmazer, G., Ersan, Ö., Kaçan, B., Fındık, G., Üzümcüoğlu, Y., Özkan, T., Lajunen, T., Öz, B., Pashkevich, A., Pashkevich, M., Danelli-Mylona, V., Georgogianni, D., Berisha Krasniqi, E., Krasniqi, M., Makris, E., Shubenkova, K., & Xheladini, G. (2021). Road users’ evaluations and perceptions of road infrastructure, trip characteristics, and daily trip experiences across countries. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 11, 100412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100412
  • Badi, I., Stević, Ž., Radović, D., Ristić, B., Cakić, A., & Sremac, S. (2023). A new methodology for treating problems in the field of traffic safety: case study of Libyan cities. Transport, 38(4), 190-203. https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2023.20609
  • Bao, Q., Ruan, D., Shen, Y., Hermans, E., & Janssens, D. (2012). Improved hierarchical fuzzy TOPSIS for road safety performance evaluation. Knowledge-Based Systems, 32, 84-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2011.08.014
  • Cetin, V. R., Yilmaz, H. H., & Erkan, V. (2018). The impact of increasing speed limit in Turkey: The case of Ankara-Sivrihisar road section. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 6(1), 72-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2017.11.004
  • Chen, F., Li, Y., Feng, Q., Dong, Z., Qian, Y., Yan, Y., Ho, M. S., Ma, Q., Zhang, D., & Jin, Y. (2023). Road safety performance rating through PSI-PRIDIT: A planning tool for designing policies and identifying best practices for EAS countries. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 85, 101438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101438
  • Elvik, R. (2024). The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 202, 107612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107612
  • Emniyet Genel Müdürlüğü (EGM). (2024). Aralık 2024 Trafik İstatistik Bülteni: Ülke Geneli. https://trafik.gov.tr/istatistikler37. Erişim Tarihi: 26.04.2025.
  • Erdogan, S. (2009). Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey. Journal of Safety Research, 40(5), 341-351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2009.07.006
  • Fancello, G., Carta, M., & Fadda, P. (2019). Road intersections ranking for road safety improvement: Comparative analysis of multi-criteria decision making methods. Transport Policy, 80, 188-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.04.007
  • Hareru, H. E., Negassa, B., Kassa Abebe, R., Ashenafi, E., Zenebe, G. A., Debela, B. G., Ashuro, Z., & Eshete Soboksa, N. (2022). The epidemiology of road traffic accidents and associated factors among drivers in Dilla Town, Southern Ethiopia. Frontiers in Public Health, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1007308
  • Hezam, I. M., Ali, A. M., Sallam, K., Hameed, I. A., Foul, A., & Abdel-Basset, M. (2024). An extension of root assessment method (RAM) under spherical fuzzy framework for optimal selection of electricity production technologies toward sustainability: a case study. International Journal of Energy Research, 2024(1), 7985867. https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/7985867
  • Hwang, C. L., & Yoon, K. (1981). Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48318-9
  • Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, S., Shaffiee Haghshenas, S., Memarpour Ghiaci, A., Guido, G., & Vitale, A. (2023). Road safety assessment and risks prioritization using an integrated SWARA and MARCOS approach under spherical fuzzy environment. Neural Computing and Applications, 35(6), 4549-4567. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07929-4
  • Kanuganti, S., Agarwala, R., Dutta, B., Bhanegaonkar, P. N., Singh, A. P., & Sarkar, A. K. (2017). Road safety analysis using multi criteria approach: A case study in India. Transportation Research Procedia, 25, 4649-4661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.299
  • Komasi, H., Nemati, A., Hashemkhani Zolfani, S., & Mehtari Taheri, H. (2024). Road safety evaluation in inner-city roads and suburban roads based on a novel-hybrid MCDM model. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 15(8), 102796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2024.102796
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There are 56 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Tayfun Öztaş 0000-0001-8224-5092

Publication Date December 3, 2025
Submission Date July 21, 2025
Acceptance Date September 17, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 28 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Öztaş, T. (2025). TÜRKİYE’DE YOL GÜVENLİĞİ PERFORMANSININ ÇOK KRİTERLİ DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: BÜTÜNLEŞİK CENTROIDOUS-RAM YAKLAŞIMI. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(4), 1928-1948.
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