DENİZ YIRTICILARI ALGORİTMASI İLE TÜRKİYE’NİN ENERJİ TALEBİNİN TAHMİN EDİLMESİNE YÖNELİK KAPSAMLI BİR ÇALIŞMA

Ahmet Özkış

doi:10.17780/ksujes.1413432

EN TR

A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY ON FORECASTING TURKEY'S ENERGY DEMAND WITH THE MARINE PREDATORS ALGORITHM

Abstract

The energy demand is increasing day by day, and it is of great importance to predict this demand. This study was conducted to estimate Turkey's energy demand between 1979 - 2015 with the recently proposed marine predators algorithm (MPA). To determine the weights of the linear and quadratic regression models used in the study is utilized from the MPA. According to the studies, MPA is used for this purpose for the first time in the literature. The results obtained by the MPA for sum-squared-error and total-relative-percentage-error metrics were compared with algorithms well-known in the literature differential evolution, Archimedes optimization, moth flame optimization, and grey wolf optimizer. Unlike other studies in the literature, performance comparisons are not only based on the best value; it was made according to the best, worst, average, and standard deviation values. The results showed that MPA has a more successful and stable structure than the compared algorithms in the energy demand forecasting problem.

Keywords

DENİZ YIRTICILARI ALGORİTMASI İLE TÜRKİYE’NİN ENERJİ TALEBİNİN TAHMİN EDİLMESİNE YÖNELİK KAPSAMLI BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Enerjiye olan talep her geçen gün artmakta ve bu talebin önceden tahmin edilebilmesi büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışma, yakın zamanda önerilen deniz avcıları algoritması (MPA) ile Türkiye’nin 1979 – 2015 yılları arasındaki enerji talebini tahmin etmek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan doğrusal ve ikinci dereceden regresyon modellerinin ağırlıklarının belirlenmesinde MPA’dan yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan incelemelere göre MPA literatürde ilk kez bu amaçla kullanılmaktadır. MPA’nın toplam karesel hata ve toplam bağıl yüzde hatası metrikleri için elde ettiği sonuçlar, literatürde iyi bilinen diferansiyel evrim, Arşimet optimizasyon, güve alev optimizasyonu ve gri kurt algoritmaları ile kıyaslanmıştır. Literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak performans karşılaştırmaları sadece en iyi değer üzerinden değil; en iyi, en kötü, ortalama ve standart sapma değerlerine göre yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar MPA’nın enerji talep tahmin probleminde karşılaştırılan algoritmalardan daha başarılı ve kararlı bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Destekleyen Kurum

Destek alınan bir kurum bulunmamaktadır.

Etik Beyan

Herhangi bir kurum ya da kişiyle çıkar çatışması bulunmamaktadır.

Teşekkür

Emekleriniz için şimdiden teşekkürler.

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Takviyeli Öğrenme , Evrimsel Hesaplama , Modelleme ve Simülasyon

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Ahmet Özkış ^*
0000-0002-1899-5494
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

3 Haziran 2024

Gönderilme Tarihi

3 Ocak 2024

Kabul Tarihi

14 Şubat 2024

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2024 Cilt: 27 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1413432

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA22LY36YR

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Özkış, A. (2024). DENİZ YIRTICILARI ALGORİTMASI İLE TÜRKİYE’NİN ENERJİ TALEBİNİN TAHMİN EDİLMESİNE YÖNELİK KAPSAMLI BİR ÇALIŞMA. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 27(2), 615-630. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1413432

Cited By

METEOROLOJİK VERİLER KULLANILARAK RÜZGÂR ENERJİSİ ÜRETİMİNİN FARKLI MAKİNE ÖĞRENMESİ YÖNTEMLERİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1667861