COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION

Bestami Taşar

TR EN

YAĞIŞ-AKIŞ TAHMİNİ İÇİN MAKİNE ÖĞRENİMİNE DAYALI MODELLERİN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI DEĞERLENDİRMESİ

Öz

Yağış-akış tahmini, hidrolojik modellemede önemli bir konudur. Ancak havza süreçleri doğrusal olmayan ve dinamik bir yapı göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, farklı girdi konfigürasyonlarının günlük akım tahmini üzerindeki etkisi veri odaklı yöntemlerle incelenmiştir. Çalışmada 01/01/2020–13/09/2025 dönemini kapsayan toplam 1826 günlük gözlem kullanılmıştır. Veri setinin 1461 adedi eğitim, 365 adedi ise test amacıyla ayrılmıştır. Üç farklı model seti oluşturulmuş ve bunlar Çoklu Doğrusal Regresyon (MLR), Çok Katmanlı Algılayıcı (MLP), M5 Model Ağacı (M5 TREE) ve Rastgele Ağaç (RT) yöntemleri ile değerlendirilmiştir. Model performansı RMSE, MAE, MAPE, NSE, R ve R² ölçütleri ile belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, girdi yapısı genişledikçe tahmin başarısının arttığını göstermiştir. En iyi genel sonuçlar Model Set 3 ile elde edilmiştir. MLP3 en düşük RMSE (3,582 m³/s) ile en yüksek NSE (0,974) ve R² (0,974) değerlerini vermiştir. M5 TREE3 ise en düşük MAE (2,118 m³/s) ve MAPE (%4,601) değerlerini üretmiştir. Buna karşılık, RT modelleri daha zayıf ve daha kararsız sonuçlar vermiştir. Genel olarak, bulgular girdi konfigürasyonunun yağış-akış modellemesinde algoritma seçimi kadar önemli olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, uygun gecikmeli değişkenler kullanıldığında doğrusal olmayan makine öğrenmesi modellerinin daha güvenilir tahminler üretebildiği belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION

Öz

Accurate rainfall–runoff prediction is important in hydrological modeling. However, watershed processes are nonlinear and dynamic. This study examined the effect of different input configurations on daily streamflow prediction using data-driven methods. A total of 1,826 daily observations covering the period 01/01/2020–09/13/2025 were used. The dataset was split into 1,461 for training and 365 for testing. Three model sets were developed and evaluated using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), M5 Model Tree (M5 TREE), and Random Tree (RT). Model performance was assessed using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, NSE, R, and R². The results showed that prediction accuracy improved as the input structure became more comprehensive. Model Set 3 produced the best overall results. MLP3 achieved the lowest RMSE (3.582 m³/s) and the highest NSE (0.974) and R² (0.974). M5 TREE3 produced the lowest MAE (2.118 m³/s) and MAPE (4.601%). In contrast, RT models showed weaker and less stable performance. Overall, the results showed that input configuration is as important as algorithm selection in rainfall–runoff modeling. The findings also indicated that nonlinear machine learning models can provide more reliable predictions when suitable lagged variables are included.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Derin Öğrenme, Modelleme ve Simülasyon, Su Kaynakları Mühendisliği, Su Kaynakları ve Su Yapıları

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Bestami Taşar ^*
0000-0003-4842-3937
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

3 Eylül 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

20 Şubat 2026

Kabul Tarihi

25 Haziran 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 29 Sayı: 3

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Taşar, B. (2026). COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 29(3), 1246-1260. https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA

AMA

1.Taşar B. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. 2026;29(3):1246-1260. https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA

Chicago

Taşar, Bestami. 2026. “COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 29 (3): 1246-60. https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA.

EndNote

Taşar B (01 Eylül 2026) COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 29 3 1246–1260.

IEEE

[1]B. Taşar, “COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION”, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 29, sy 3, ss. 1246–1260, Eyl. 2026, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA

ISNAD

Taşar, Bestami. “COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 29/3 (01 Eylül 2026): 1246-1260. https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA.

JAMA

1.Taşar B. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi. 2026;29:1246–1260.

MLA

Taşar, Bestami. “COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 29, sy 3, Eylül 2026, ss. 1246-60, https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA.

Vancouver

1.Bestami Taşar. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF MACHINE LEARNING-BASED MODELS FOR RAINFALL–RUNOFF PREDICTION. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi [Internet]. 01 Eylül 2026;29(3):1246-60. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA76BA85MA