Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

ANALYSIS OF ACTIVITY-TRAVEL CHOICES AND VEHICLE OWNERSHIP USING DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 151 - 168, 03.03.2025

Gözde Bakioğlu

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1530078

Öz

Leisure activities are crucial for enhancing individuals' social, physical, and mental well-being, and the travel associated with these activities directly impacts the use and planning of transportation networks. This study aims to examine the demographic, travel, and technological factors influencing individuals' participation in leisure activities. To achieve this objective, discrete choice models, specifically the Multinomial Logit (MNL) and binary logit models, were utilized to identify variables affecting activity choices. The MNL model analyzes individuals' choices among various activities, while the binary logit model examines the participation of vehicle-owning individuals in activities and its relationship with other demographic and technological characteristics. The analysis results revealed that women tend to participate more in indoor activities, while participation in indoor and sports activities decreases with age, although the likelihood of vehicle ownership increases. Furthermore, it has been found that married individuals have a higher propensity for vehicle ownership, while individuals with low digital knowledge levels exhibit lower participation tendencies in both activities and vehicle ownership. These findings provide transportation sector professionals and researchers with a deeper understanding of the factors influencing individuals' activity preferences, enabling them to use this information to develop targeted policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Activity choices Vehicle ownership Multinomial logit model Binary logit model

Kaynakça

  • Badia, M., Orgaz, B. M., Verdugo, M. A., Ullan, A. M., & Martínez, M. M. (2011). Personal factors and perceived barriers to participation in leisure activities for young and adults with developmental disabilities. Research in Developmental Disabilities, 32(6), 2055-2063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ridd.2011.08.007
  • Ben-Akiva, M. E., & Lerman, S. R. (1985). Discrete choice analysis: theory and application to travel demand (Vol. 9). MIT press.
  • Bhat, C. R. (1998). Analysis of travel mode and departure time choice for urban shopping trips. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 32(6), 361-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(98)00004-6
  • Bhat, C. R., & Gossen, R. (2004). A mixed multinomial logit model analysis of weekend recreational episode type choice. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 38(9), 767-787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2003.10.003
  • Blumenberg, E., Brown, A., & Schouten, A. (2020). Car-deficit households: determinants and implications for household travel in the US. Transportation, 47, 1103-1125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9956-6
  • Çelik, A. K., Kabakuş, N., & Tortum, A. (2023). Influential factors of household car and vehicle ownership in urban areas of Turkey. Transportation Research Record, 2677(6), 218-240. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221145138
  • Cervero, R. (2002). Built environments and mode choice: toward a normative framework. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 7(4), 265-284. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1361-9209(01)00024-4
  • Chen, X., Liu, X., & Li, F. (2013). Comparative study on mode split discrete choice models. Journal of Modern Transportation, 21(4), 266-272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-013-0028-5
  • Clark, B., Chatterjee, K., & Melia, S. (2016). Changes in level of household car ownership: the role of life events and spatial context. Transportation, 43, 565-599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9589-y
  • Dargay, J., Gately, D., & Sommer, M. (2007). Vehicle ownership and income growth, worldwide: 1960-2030. The Energy Journal, 28(4), 143-170. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-7
  • Demir, Y. K., & Gerçek, H. (2010). Ulaştırma türü seçiminde esnek hesaplama yöntemleri. İTÜDERGİSİ/d, 5(6).
  • Doddamani, C., & Manoj, M. (2023). Analysis of the influences of built environment measures on household car and motorcycle ownership decisions in Hubli-Dharwad cities. Transportation, 50(1), 205-243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10242-z
  • Domencich, Thomas and McFadden, Daniel. Urban travel demand. Amsterdam: North- Holland, 1975.
  • Ferdous, N., Eluru, N., Bhat, C. R., & Meloni, I. (2010). A multivariate ordered-response model system for adults’ weekday activity episode generation by activity purpose and social context. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 44(8-9), 922-943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2010.02.002
  • Gosens, T., & Rouwendal, J. (2018). Nature-based outdoor recreation trips: Duration, travel mode and location. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 116, 513-530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.06.024
  • Gramsch Calvo, B., & Axhausen, K. W. (2024). The Importance of the Social Environment on Leisure Destination Choice: A Mixed Multinomial Analysis of Homophilic Preferences. Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs-und Raumplanung, 1853. https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000682385
  • Hassan, M. N., Najmi, A., & Rashidi, T. H. (2019). A two-stage recreational destination choice study incorporating fuzzy logic in discrete choice modelling. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 67, 123-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2019.10.015
  • Hausmann, J. and McFadden, D. L. (1984) A specification test for the multinomial logit model, Econometrica, 52, 1219-40. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910997
  • Hensher, D. A., Rose, J. M., & Greene, W. H. (2005). Applied choice analysis: a primer. Cambridge University Press.
  • Imms, C., Reilly, S., Carlin, J., & Dodd, K. J. (2009). Characteristics influencing participation of Australian children with cerebral palsy. Disability and Rehabilitation, 31(26), 2204-2215. https://doi.org/10.3109/09638280902971406
  • İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi, Dijital Uçurum Haritası Verileri, https://data.ibb.gov.tr/dataset/dijital-ucurum-haritasi-verileri, (Erişim Tarihi: 05.08.2024).
  • Kemperman, A. D., Ponjé, M. M., & Timmermans, H. J. (2005). Analyzing heterogeneity and substitution in trip-making propensity to urban parks: A mixed logit model. Tourism Analysis, 10(3), 223-232. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354205775322925
  • Limtanakool, N., Dijst, M., & Schwanen, T. (2006). The influence of socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel time considerations on mode choice for medium-and longer-distance trips. Journal of Transport Geography, 14(5), 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2005.06.004
  • McFadden, D. (1974). The measurement of urban travel demand. Journal of Public Economics, 3(4), 303-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(74)90003-6
  • Murat, Y. Ş., & Uludağ, N. (2008). Bulanık mantık ve lojistik regresyon yöntemleri ile ulaşım ağlarında geçki seçim davranışının modellenmesi. Teknik Dergi, 19(92), 4363-4379.
  • Nolan, A. (2010). A dynamic analysis of household car ownership. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(6), 446-455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.03.018
  • Oakil, A. T. M., Ettema, D., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. (2014). Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence. Transportation, 41, 889-904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9507-0
  • Ögüt, K. S. (2004). S-curve models to determine the car ownership in Turkey. ITU ARI Bulletin of Istanbul Technical University, 54(02), 65-69.
  • Öğüt, S. K. (2006). Modeling car ownership in Turkey using fuzzy regression. Transportation Planning and Technology, 29(3), 233-248.
  • Páez, A., & Farber, S. (2012). Participation and desire: leisure activities among Canadian adults with disabilities. Transportation, 39, 1055-1078. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-012-9385-x
  • Potoglou, D., & Kanaroglou, P. S. (2008). Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada. Journal of Transport Geography, 16(1), 42-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.01.006
  • Pressman, S. D., Matthews, K. A., Cohen, S., Martire, L. M., Scheier, M., Baum, A., & Schulz, R. (2009). Association of enjoyable leisure activities with psychological and physical well being. Psychosomatic Medicine, 71(7), 725-732. DOI: 10.1097/PSY.0b013e3181ad7978
  • Shoham, D. A., Dugas, L. R., Bovet, P., Forrester, T. E., Lambert, E. V., Plange-Rhule, J., ... & Luke, A. (2015). Association of car ownership and physical activity across the spectrum of human development: Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS). BMC Public Health, 15, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1435-9
  • Sola, A. G., & Vilhelmson, B. (2022). To choose, or not to choose, a nearby activity option: Understanding the gendered role of proximity in urban settings. Journal of Transport Geography, 99, 103301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103301
  • Tana, Kwan, M. P., & Chai, Y. (2016). Urban form, car ownership and activity space in inner suburbs: A comparison between Beijing (China) and Chicago (United States). Urban Studies, 53(9), 1784-1802. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015581123
  • TÜİK, Ulaştırma ve Haberleşme İstatistikleri, “Motorlu Kara Taşıt Sayısı”, Haziran 2024, https://www.tuik.gov.tr/, (Erişim Tarihi: 05.08.2024).
  • Yin, C., Chen, Y., & Sun, B. (2024). Examining the relationship between car ownership, car use, and exercise: Role of the built environment. Cities, 149, 104943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.104943
  • Zijlstra, H. P., & Vlaskamp, C. (2005). Leisure provision for persons with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities: quality time or killing time?. Journal of Intellectual Disability Research, 49(6), 434-448. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2788.2005.00689.x

AKTİVİTE-SEYAHAT SEÇİMLERİ VE ARAÇ SAHİPLİĞİNİN KESİKLİ SEÇİM MODELLERİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 151 - 168, 03.03.2025

Gözde Bakioğlu

https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1530078

Öz

Boş zaman aktiviteleri, bireylerin sosyal, fiziksel ve zihinsel refahını artırmasının yanı sıra, bu aktiviteler için yapılan seyahatlerin ulaşım ağlarının kullanımını ve planlanmasını doğrudan etkileyen önemli bir unsurdur. Bu çalışma, bireylerin boş zaman aktivitelerine katılımını etkileyen demografik, seyahat ve teknolojik faktörlerin incelenmesini amaçlamaktadır. Bu kapsamda, aktivite seçimleri üzerinde etkili olan değişkenleri belirlemek için kesikli seçim modellerinden Multinomial lojit (MNL) ve ikili lojit modelleri kullanılmıştır. MNL modeli, bireylerin çeşitli aktiviteler arasında yaptığı seçimleri analiz ederken, ikili lojit modeli araç sahibi bireylerin aktivitelere katılımını ve bunun diğer demografik ve teknolojik özelliklerle ilişkisini incelemiştir. Analiz sonuçları, kadınların kapalı alan aktivitelerine daha fazla katılma eğiliminde olduğunu, yaş ilerledikçe kapalı alan ve spor aktivitelerine katılımın azaldığını, ancak araç sahibi olma olasılığının arttığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, evli bireylerin araç sahibi olma eğilimi yüksekken, düşük dijital bilgi seviyesine sahip bireylerin hem aktiviteler hem de araç sahipliği konusunda daha düşük katılım eğilimi gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgular, ulaşım sektörü profesyonelleri ve araştırmacılar için, bireylerin aktivite tercihlerini etkileyen faktörleri daha iyi anlamalarını sağlayarak, bu bilgileri hedefe yönelik politikalar geliştirmek için kullanmalarına yardımcı olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Aktivite seçimleri Araç sahipliği Multinomial lojit model ikili lojit model

Kaynakça

  • Badia, M., Orgaz, B. M., Verdugo, M. A., Ullan, A. M., & Martínez, M. M. (2011). Personal factors and perceived barriers to participation in leisure activities for young and adults with developmental disabilities. Research in Developmental Disabilities, 32(6), 2055-2063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ridd.2011.08.007
  • Ben-Akiva, M. E., & Lerman, S. R. (1985). Discrete choice analysis: theory and application to travel demand (Vol. 9). MIT press.
  • Bhat, C. R. (1998). Analysis of travel mode and departure time choice for urban shopping trips. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 32(6), 361-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(98)00004-6
  • Bhat, C. R., & Gossen, R. (2004). A mixed multinomial logit model analysis of weekend recreational episode type choice. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 38(9), 767-787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2003.10.003
  • Blumenberg, E., Brown, A., & Schouten, A. (2020). Car-deficit households: determinants and implications for household travel in the US. Transportation, 47, 1103-1125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9956-6
  • Çelik, A. K., Kabakuş, N., & Tortum, A. (2023). Influential factors of household car and vehicle ownership in urban areas of Turkey. Transportation Research Record, 2677(6), 218-240. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221145138
  • Cervero, R. (2002). Built environments and mode choice: toward a normative framework. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 7(4), 265-284. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1361-9209(01)00024-4
  • Chen, X., Liu, X., & Li, F. (2013). Comparative study on mode split discrete choice models. Journal of Modern Transportation, 21(4), 266-272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-013-0028-5
  • Clark, B., Chatterjee, K., & Melia, S. (2016). Changes in level of household car ownership: the role of life events and spatial context. Transportation, 43, 565-599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9589-y
  • Dargay, J., Gately, D., & Sommer, M. (2007). Vehicle ownership and income growth, worldwide: 1960-2030. The Energy Journal, 28(4), 143-170. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-7
  • Demir, Y. K., & Gerçek, H. (2010). Ulaştırma türü seçiminde esnek hesaplama yöntemleri. İTÜDERGİSİ/d, 5(6).
  • Doddamani, C., & Manoj, M. (2023). Analysis of the influences of built environment measures on household car and motorcycle ownership decisions in Hubli-Dharwad cities. Transportation, 50(1), 205-243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10242-z
  • Domencich, Thomas and McFadden, Daniel. Urban travel demand. Amsterdam: North- Holland, 1975.
  • Ferdous, N., Eluru, N., Bhat, C. R., & Meloni, I. (2010). A multivariate ordered-response model system for adults’ weekday activity episode generation by activity purpose and social context. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 44(8-9), 922-943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2010.02.002
  • Gosens, T., & Rouwendal, J. (2018). Nature-based outdoor recreation trips: Duration, travel mode and location. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 116, 513-530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.06.024
  • Gramsch Calvo, B., & Axhausen, K. W. (2024). The Importance of the Social Environment on Leisure Destination Choice: A Mixed Multinomial Analysis of Homophilic Preferences. Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs-und Raumplanung, 1853. https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000682385
  • Hassan, M. N., Najmi, A., & Rashidi, T. H. (2019). A two-stage recreational destination choice study incorporating fuzzy logic in discrete choice modelling. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 67, 123-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2019.10.015
  • Hausmann, J. and McFadden, D. L. (1984) A specification test for the multinomial logit model, Econometrica, 52, 1219-40. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910997
  • Hensher, D. A., Rose, J. M., & Greene, W. H. (2005). Applied choice analysis: a primer. Cambridge University Press.
  • Imms, C., Reilly, S., Carlin, J., & Dodd, K. J. (2009). Characteristics influencing participation of Australian children with cerebral palsy. Disability and Rehabilitation, 31(26), 2204-2215. https://doi.org/10.3109/09638280902971406
  • İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi, Dijital Uçurum Haritası Verileri, https://data.ibb.gov.tr/dataset/dijital-ucurum-haritasi-verileri, (Erişim Tarihi: 05.08.2024).
  • Kemperman, A. D., Ponjé, M. M., & Timmermans, H. J. (2005). Analyzing heterogeneity and substitution in trip-making propensity to urban parks: A mixed logit model. Tourism Analysis, 10(3), 223-232. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354205775322925
  • Limtanakool, N., Dijst, M., & Schwanen, T. (2006). The influence of socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel time considerations on mode choice for medium-and longer-distance trips. Journal of Transport Geography, 14(5), 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2005.06.004
  • McFadden, D. (1974). The measurement of urban travel demand. Journal of Public Economics, 3(4), 303-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(74)90003-6
  • Murat, Y. Ş., & Uludağ, N. (2008). Bulanık mantık ve lojistik regresyon yöntemleri ile ulaşım ağlarında geçki seçim davranışının modellenmesi. Teknik Dergi, 19(92), 4363-4379.
  • Nolan, A. (2010). A dynamic analysis of household car ownership. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(6), 446-455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.03.018
  • Oakil, A. T. M., Ettema, D., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. (2014). Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence. Transportation, 41, 889-904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9507-0
  • Ögüt, K. S. (2004). S-curve models to determine the car ownership in Turkey. ITU ARI Bulletin of Istanbul Technical University, 54(02), 65-69.
  • Öğüt, S. K. (2006). Modeling car ownership in Turkey using fuzzy regression. Transportation Planning and Technology, 29(3), 233-248.
  • Páez, A., & Farber, S. (2012). Participation and desire: leisure activities among Canadian adults with disabilities. Transportation, 39, 1055-1078. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-012-9385-x
  • Potoglou, D., & Kanaroglou, P. S. (2008). Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada. Journal of Transport Geography, 16(1), 42-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.01.006
  • Pressman, S. D., Matthews, K. A., Cohen, S., Martire, L. M., Scheier, M., Baum, A., & Schulz, R. (2009). Association of enjoyable leisure activities with psychological and physical well being. Psychosomatic Medicine, 71(7), 725-732. DOI: 10.1097/PSY.0b013e3181ad7978
  • Shoham, D. A., Dugas, L. R., Bovet, P., Forrester, T. E., Lambert, E. V., Plange-Rhule, J., ... & Luke, A. (2015). Association of car ownership and physical activity across the spectrum of human development: Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS). BMC Public Health, 15, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1435-9
  • Sola, A. G., & Vilhelmson, B. (2022). To choose, or not to choose, a nearby activity option: Understanding the gendered role of proximity in urban settings. Journal of Transport Geography, 99, 103301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103301
  • Tana, Kwan, M. P., & Chai, Y. (2016). Urban form, car ownership and activity space in inner suburbs: A comparison between Beijing (China) and Chicago (United States). Urban Studies, 53(9), 1784-1802. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015581123
  • TÜİK, Ulaştırma ve Haberleşme İstatistikleri, “Motorlu Kara Taşıt Sayısı”, Haziran 2024, https://www.tuik.gov.tr/, (Erişim Tarihi: 05.08.2024).
  • Yin, C., Chen, Y., & Sun, B. (2024). Examining the relationship between car ownership, car use, and exercise: Role of the built environment. Cities, 149, 104943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.104943
  • Zijlstra, H. P., & Vlaskamp, C. (2005). Leisure provision for persons with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities: quality time or killing time?. Journal of Intellectual Disability Research, 49(6), 434-448. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2788.2005.00689.x
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ulaşım ve Trafik, Ulaştırma Mühendisliği
Bölüm İnşaat Mühendisliği
Yazarlar

Gözde Bakioğlu 0000-0003-3754-2631

Yayımlanma Tarihi 3 Mart 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 8 Ağustos 2024
Kabul Tarihi 22 Ekim 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Bakioğlu, G. (2025). AKTİVİTE-SEYAHAT SEÇİMLERİ VE ARAÇ SAHİPLİĞİNİN KESİKLİ SEÇİM MODELLERİ İLE İNCELENMESİ. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(1), 151-168. https://doi.org/10.17780/ksujes.1530078
 Kapak Resmi İndir