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DİYARBAKIR İLİNE AİT YAĞIŞ VERİLERİNİN FARKLI TREND ANALİZİ YÖNTEMLERİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 350 - 368, 03.03.2025

Burak Gül

Öz

Küresel iklim değişikliği, iklim sistemlerinde büyük değişikliklere yol açarak, doğal kaynakların yönetimi, tarım ve su güvenliğini etkilemektedir. Bu etkiler yerel düzeyde de hissedildiği için, bölgesel iklim analizleri büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Diyarbakır ilinin 1970-2022 yılları arasındaki yağış verilerini analiz ederek iklim değişikliğinin yerel etkilerini incelenmiştir. Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope, Spearman’s Rho ve Yenilikçi Trend Analizi (ITA) yöntemleri kullanılarak yağış verileri üzerinde trend analizleri yapılmıştır. Mann-Kendall testi trendlerin istatistiksel anlamlılığını, Sen's Slope ise trendlerin eğimini değerlendirmiştir. Sonuçlar, yıllık ve mevsimsel bazda anlamlı bir trend olmadığını göstermiştir. ITA yöntemi, yaz mevsiminde ve yıllık toplam yağışta azalma, ilkbahar ve sonbaharda artış trendleri ortaya koyarken, kış mevsiminde bir trend bulunmamıştır. Spearman’s Rho testi, yıllık toplam yağış ve mevsimler arasında pozitif bir ilişki belirlemiş, ancak mevsimler arasında trend görülmemiştir. Bu çalışma, yerel iklim analizlerinin önemine işaret etmekte ve gelecekteki değişikliklere hazırlıklı olma konusunda katkı sağlamaktadır. İklim verilerinin sürekli izlenmesi, stratejik kararlar için kritik bir rol oynamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Diyarbakır İklim değişikliği Trend analizleri Yağış

Kaynakça

  • Alashan, S. (2018). An improved version of innovative trend analyses. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1007/S12517-018-3393-X/METRICS
  • Alemu, G. T., Desta, S. A., & Tareke, K. A. (2024). Characterize and analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought trends under future climate change conditions in South Wollo, North Wollo, and Oromia Zones, in Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29694
  • AlSubih, M., Kumari, M., Mallick, J., Ramakrishnan, R., Islam, S., & Singh, C. K. (2021). Time series trend analysis of rainfall in last five decades and its quantification in Aseer Region of Saudi Arabia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/S12517-021-06935-5
  • Aydın, M. (2023). Elazığ İli Yağış Verilerinin Trend Analizi. Fırat Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 35(1), 159-173. https://doi.org/10.35234/fumbd.1178987
  • Bojago, E., Tessema, A., & Ngare, I. (2024). GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10(13). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33235
  • Bahadır, M. (2011). Temperature and precipitation trend analysis in Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP) area. The Journal of International Social Research, 4(16)
  • Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, N. (2021). Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM): a case study for precipitation data of Susurluk Basin in Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 69(4), 1465–1480. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11600-021-00605-6
  • Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ceribasi, G. (2024). Changes in precipitation and air temperature over Turkey using innovative trend pivot analysis method. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(5), 2446–2463. https://doi.org/10.2166/WCC.2024.041
  • Coşkun, S. (2020). VAN GÖLÜ KAPALI HAVZASINDA YAĞIŞLARIN TREND ANALİZİ. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 8(2), 521-532. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.685420
  • Doğan Demir, A., Demir, Y., Şahin, Ü., Meral, R. (2017). Bingöl İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağışların Trend Analizi ve Tarıma Etkisi. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 4(3), 284-291.
  • Gül, B., & Kayaalp, N. (2024). Investigation of the flood event under global climate change with different analysis methods for both historical and future periods. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(8), 3939–3965. https://doi.org/10.2166/WCC.2024.196
  • Gümüş, V., Doğan Dinsever, L., Şimşek, O., Sözcükler, A., Analizi, K., Analizi, T., İndeksi, Y., & Yöntemi, Y. Ş. (2021). Diyarbakır İstasyonunda 1929–2016 Boyunca Tarihsel Kuraklığın Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi ile Trend Analizi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 7(2), 362–373. https://doi.org/10.21324/DACD.884682
  • Gümüş, V., Avşaroğlu, Y., Şimşek, O., & Dinsever, L. D. (2023). Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey. Geofizika, 40(1), 51–73. https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.3
  • Javari, M. (2016). Trend and homogeneity analysis of precipitation in Iran. Climate, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/CLI4030044
  • Kahya, E., & Kalaycı, S. (2004). Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.006
  • Kundu, S., Khare, D., Mondal, A., & Mishra, P. K. (2014). Long Term Rainfall Trend Analysis (1871–2011) for Whole India. 45–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54838-6_4
  • Modarres, R., & Sarhadi, A. (2009). Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Journal of Arid Environments, 73(3), 347-355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2008.10.005
  • Özdel, M. M. (2020). Diyarbakır havzasında sıcaklık ve yağış parametrelerinin trend analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Coğrafya Anabilim Dalı, Nevşehir 304s.
  • Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20(9), 2011-2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993
  • Pathak, A. A., & Dodamani, B. M. (2020). Trend analysis of rainfall, rainy days and drought: a case study of Ghataprabha River Basin, India. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 6(3), 1357–1372. https://doi.org/10.1007/S40808-020-00798-7
  • Sa’adi, Z., Yaseen, Z. M., Farooque, A. A., Mohamad, N. A., Muhammad, M. K. I., & Iqbal, Z. (2023). Long-term trend analysis of extreme climate in Sarawak tropical peatland under the influence of climate change. Weather and Climate Extremes, 40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100554
  • Shi, P., Ma, X., Chen, X., Qu, S., & Zhang, Z. (2013). Analysis of variation trends in precipitation in an upstream catchment of Huai River. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/929383
  • Singh, R., Sah, S., Das, B., Potekar, S., Chaudhary, A., & Pathak, H. (2021). Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145(1–2), 821–838. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00704-021-03657-2
  • Şen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127(3–4), 939–947. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00704-015-1681-X/METRICS
  • Turkish State Meteorological Service 2023 Resmi Istatistikler (İl ve İlçelerimize Ait İstatistiki Veriler) (Official Statistics (Statistical Data for our Provinces and Districts)). Available from: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k/A&m/ (accessed 20 June 2024).
  • Wubneh, M. A., Alemu, M. G., Fekadie, F. T., Worku, T. A., Demamu, M. T., & Aman, T. F. (2023). Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring and trend analysis for selected gauged watersheds in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia: Under future climate change impact scenario. Scientific African, 20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01738
  • Yükseler, U., Dursun, Ö. F., & Alashan, S. (2021). Yağışların Mevsimsel Değişimlerinin Eğilim Analiz Yöntemleri ile Araştırılması: Bingöl İli Örneği. El-Cezeri, 8(1), 45–59. https://doi.org/10.31202/ECJSE.769918
  • Yürekli, K. (2015). Impact of climate variability on precipitation in the Upper Euphrates–Tigris Rivers Basin of Southeast Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 154, 25–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2014.11.002
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., & Yuzyk, T. R. (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900357

INVESTIGATION OF PRECIPITATION DATA OF DİYARBAKIR PROVINCE WITH DIFFERENT TREND ANALYSIS METHODS

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 350 - 368, 03.03.2025

Burak Gül

Öz

Global climate change leads to significant alterations in climate systems, affecting natural resource management, agriculture, and water security. As these impacts are also felt at the local level, regional climate analyses are crucial. This study analyzes precipitation data from Diyarbakır province between 1970 and 2022 to examine the local effects of climate change. Trend analyses were conducted using Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope, Spearman’s Rho, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods. The Mann-Kendall test assessed the statistical significance of trends, while Sen's Slope estimated the magnitude of these trends. The results indicated no statistically significant trends on an annual or seasonal basis. However, the ITA method revealed decreasing trends in summer precipitation and annual totals, alongside increasing trends in spring and autumn precipitation. No trends were detected for winter precipitation. The Spearman’s Rho test identified a positive relationship between annual total precipitation and seasons, but no trends were observed among the seasons themselves. This study highlights the importance of local climate analyses and contributes to preparedness for future changes. Continuous monitoring of climate data plays a critical role in making informed strategic decisions, particularly in water resource management and agricultural policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate change Diyarbakır Precipitation Trend analysis

Kaynakça

  • Alashan, S. (2018). An improved version of innovative trend analyses. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1007/S12517-018-3393-X/METRICS
  • Alemu, G. T., Desta, S. A., & Tareke, K. A. (2024). Characterize and analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought trends under future climate change conditions in South Wollo, North Wollo, and Oromia Zones, in Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29694
  • AlSubih, M., Kumari, M., Mallick, J., Ramakrishnan, R., Islam, S., & Singh, C. K. (2021). Time series trend analysis of rainfall in last five decades and its quantification in Aseer Region of Saudi Arabia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/S12517-021-06935-5
  • Aydın, M. (2023). Elazığ İli Yağış Verilerinin Trend Analizi. Fırat Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 35(1), 159-173. https://doi.org/10.35234/fumbd.1178987
  • Bojago, E., Tessema, A., & Ngare, I. (2024). GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10(13). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33235
  • Bahadır, M. (2011). Temperature and precipitation trend analysis in Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP) area. The Journal of International Social Research, 4(16)
  • Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, N. (2021). Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM): a case study for precipitation data of Susurluk Basin in Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 69(4), 1465–1480. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11600-021-00605-6
  • Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ceribasi, G. (2024). Changes in precipitation and air temperature over Turkey using innovative trend pivot analysis method. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(5), 2446–2463. https://doi.org/10.2166/WCC.2024.041
  • Coşkun, S. (2020). VAN GÖLÜ KAPALI HAVZASINDA YAĞIŞLARIN TREND ANALİZİ. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 8(2), 521-532. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.685420
  • Doğan Demir, A., Demir, Y., Şahin, Ü., Meral, R. (2017). Bingöl İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağışların Trend Analizi ve Tarıma Etkisi. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 4(3), 284-291.
  • Gül, B., & Kayaalp, N. (2024). Investigation of the flood event under global climate change with different analysis methods for both historical and future periods. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(8), 3939–3965. https://doi.org/10.2166/WCC.2024.196
  • Gümüş, V., Doğan Dinsever, L., Şimşek, O., Sözcükler, A., Analizi, K., Analizi, T., İndeksi, Y., & Yöntemi, Y. Ş. (2021). Diyarbakır İstasyonunda 1929–2016 Boyunca Tarihsel Kuraklığın Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi ile Trend Analizi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 7(2), 362–373. https://doi.org/10.21324/DACD.884682
  • Gümüş, V., Avşaroğlu, Y., Şimşek, O., & Dinsever, L. D. (2023). Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey. Geofizika, 40(1), 51–73. https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.3
  • Javari, M. (2016). Trend and homogeneity analysis of precipitation in Iran. Climate, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/CLI4030044
  • Kahya, E., & Kalaycı, S. (2004). Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.006
  • Kundu, S., Khare, D., Mondal, A., & Mishra, P. K. (2014). Long Term Rainfall Trend Analysis (1871–2011) for Whole India. 45–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54838-6_4
  • Modarres, R., & Sarhadi, A. (2009). Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Journal of Arid Environments, 73(3), 347-355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2008.10.005
  • Özdel, M. M. (2020). Diyarbakır havzasında sıcaklık ve yağış parametrelerinin trend analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Coğrafya Anabilim Dalı, Nevşehir 304s.
  • Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20(9), 2011-2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993
  • Pathak, A. A., & Dodamani, B. M. (2020). Trend analysis of rainfall, rainy days and drought: a case study of Ghataprabha River Basin, India. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 6(3), 1357–1372. https://doi.org/10.1007/S40808-020-00798-7
  • Sa’adi, Z., Yaseen, Z. M., Farooque, A. A., Mohamad, N. A., Muhammad, M. K. I., & Iqbal, Z. (2023). Long-term trend analysis of extreme climate in Sarawak tropical peatland under the influence of climate change. Weather and Climate Extremes, 40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100554
  • Shi, P., Ma, X., Chen, X., Qu, S., & Zhang, Z. (2013). Analysis of variation trends in precipitation in an upstream catchment of Huai River. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/929383
  • Singh, R., Sah, S., Das, B., Potekar, S., Chaudhary, A., & Pathak, H. (2021). Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145(1–2), 821–838. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00704-021-03657-2
  • Şen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127(3–4), 939–947. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00704-015-1681-X/METRICS
  • Turkish State Meteorological Service 2023 Resmi Istatistikler (İl ve İlçelerimize Ait İstatistiki Veriler) (Official Statistics (Statistical Data for our Provinces and Districts)). Available from: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k/A&m/ (accessed 20 June 2024).
  • Wubneh, M. A., Alemu, M. G., Fekadie, F. T., Worku, T. A., Demamu, M. T., & Aman, T. F. (2023). Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring and trend analysis for selected gauged watersheds in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia: Under future climate change impact scenario. Scientific African, 20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01738
  • Yükseler, U., Dursun, Ö. F., & Alashan, S. (2021). Yağışların Mevsimsel Değişimlerinin Eğilim Analiz Yöntemleri ile Araştırılması: Bingöl İli Örneği. El-Cezeri, 8(1), 45–59. https://doi.org/10.31202/ECJSE.769918
  • Yürekli, K. (2015). Impact of climate variability on precipitation in the Upper Euphrates–Tigris Rivers Basin of Southeast Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 154, 25–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2014.11.002
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., & Yuzyk, T. R. (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900357
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Su Kaynakları Mühendisliği, Su Kaynakları ve Su Yapıları
Bölüm İnşaat Mühendisliği
Yazarlar

Burak Gül 0009-0005-7735-2455

Yayımlanma Tarihi 3 Mart 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 14 Ekim 2024
Kabul Tarihi 17 Ocak 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Gül, B. (2025). INVESTIGATION OF PRECIPITATION DATA OF DİYARBAKIR PROVINCE WITH DIFFERENT TREND ANALYSIS METHODS. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28(1), 350-368.
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